{"id":8972,"date":"2018-08-23T19:39:19","date_gmt":"2018-08-23T22:39:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/controversia.com.br\/?p=8972"},"modified":"2018-08-23T18:41:25","modified_gmt":"2018-08-23T21:41:25","slug":"de-istambul-a-buenos-aires-as-moedas-derretem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2018\/08\/23\/de-istambul-a-buenos-aires-as-moedas-derretem\/","title":{"rendered":"De Istambul a Buenos Aires, as moedas derretem"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 Martins<\/strong> – O\u00a0piso do enorme palco do co\u00adm\u00e9rcio in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal est\u00e1 ce\u00addendo. E as mo\u00adedas das eco\u00adno\u00admias mais fr\u00e1\u00adgeis do sis\u00adtema an\u00adte\u00adcipam o de\u00adsa\u00adba\u00admento geral. A Tur\u00adquia e a Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina s\u00e3o os casos mais evi\u00addentes deste pro\u00adcesso.<\/p>\n

A coisa \u00e9 mais pe\u00adsada do que ima\u00adgina a v\u00e3 eco\u00adnomia. Recep Er\u00addogan, pre\u00adsi\u00addente da Tur\u00adquia, de\u00adclarou na se\u00admana pas\u00adsada que o ataque do mer\u00adcado sobre a moeda do seu pa\u00eds, a lira, \u00e9 muito mais vi\u00ado\u00adlento e pe\u00adri\u00adgoso que a ten\u00adta\u00adtiva de golpe de Es\u00adtado contra seu go\u00adverno em 2016. Ele sente que a eco\u00adnomia \u00e9 mais efi\u00adci\u00adente para der\u00adrubar go\u00advernos que qual\u00adquer outra a\u00e7\u00e3o dos ho\u00admens.<\/p>\n

No final do pro\u00adnun\u00adci\u00ada\u00admento pro\u00adcurou se apoiar no pa\u00adtri\u00ado\u00adtismo dos seus ci\u00adda\u00add\u00e3os para pedir que tro\u00adcassem d\u00f3lar e ou\u00adtras mo\u00adedas fortes por liras turcas, vol\u00adtassem a in\u00advestir, a pro\u00adduzir, a con\u00adsumir etc. O tiro saiu pela cu\u00adlatra. Au\u00admentou ainda mais a troca de liras por d\u00f3lar. Ace\u00adlerou o der\u00adre\u00adti\u00admento.<\/p>\n

Er\u00addogan culpa os EUA de estar por tr\u00e1s deste der\u00adre\u00adti\u00admento da lira. Do mesmo modo que es\u00adteve na\u00adquela fra\u00adcas\u00adsada ten\u00adta\u00adtiva de golpe. Coin\u00adci\u00adden\u00adte\u00admente, a gota d\u2019\u00e1gua do der\u00adre\u00adti\u00admento da lira nos \u00fal\u00adtimos dias foi a de\u00adcis\u00e3o de Washington de do\u00adbrar as ta\u00adrifas de im\u00adpor\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o sobre o a\u00e7o e alu\u00adm\u00ednio da Tur\u00adquia.<\/p>\n

Do\u00adnald Trump tuitou, de\u00adtalhe im\u00adpor\u00adtante, que as altas ta\u00adrifas con\u00adti\u00adnu\u00adar\u00e3o sendo apli\u00adcadas en\u00adquanto An\u00adkara n\u00e3o li\u00adbertar o pastor evan\u00adg\u00e9\u00adlico An\u00addrew Brunson. Esta es\u00adtranha cri\u00ada\u00adtura \u00e9 agente gra\u00adduado dos \u00f3r\u00adg\u00e3os de in\u00adte\u00adli\u00adg\u00eancia dos EUA e par\u00adti\u00adcipou ati\u00adva\u00admente na\u00adquela ten\u00adta\u00adtiva de golpe de 2016. Pelo que se co\u00adnhece da \u00edn\u00addole ca\u00adni\u00adba\u00adlesca de Er\u00addogan o in\u00adcom\u00adpe\u00adtente es\u00adpi\u00e3o es\u00adta\u00addu\u00adni\u00addense con\u00adti\u00adnuar\u00e1 en\u00adjau\u00adlado por muito mais tempo.<\/p>\n

Eco\u00adnomia e ge\u00ado\u00adpo\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica en\u00adtre\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7adas. Em poucos lu\u00adgares do mundo isso \u00e9 t\u00e3o forte quanto na Tur\u00adquia. A ge\u00ado\u00adgrafia dos mares e dos es\u00adtreitos fala alto.<\/p>\n

Um lugar sempre es\u00adtra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgico<\/strong><\/p>\n

Clique aqui e veja como o mo\u00advi\u00admento do que cha\u00admamos re\u00adcen\u00adte\u00admente de p\u00ean\u00addulo de Is\u00adtambul \u00e9 um dos ele\u00admentos es\u00adtra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgicos mais im\u00adpor\u00adtantes da ge\u00ado\u00adpo\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica e do poder mun\u00addial \u2013 desde a idade an\u00adtiga, pas\u00adsando pelo im\u00adp\u00e9rio oto\u00admano etc., at\u00e9 o atual re\u00ada\u00adli\u00adnha\u00admento da velha ordem im\u00adpe\u00adri\u00ada\u00adlista dos \u00fal\u00adtimos se\u00adtenta anos.<\/p>\n

A eco\u00adnomia turca \u00e9 a maior e mais in\u00addus\u00adtri\u00ada\u00adli\u00adzada do Ori\u00adente M\u00e9dio. Tamb\u00e9m aqui o fator ge\u00ado\u00adgr\u00e1\u00adfico conta fa\u00advo\u00adra\u00advel\u00admente. Na fron\u00adteira da Eu\u00adropa e do Ori\u00adente, a Tur\u00adquia \u00e9 tamb\u00e9m a porta do co\u00adm\u00e9rcio entre os dois mai\u00adores con\u00adti\u00adnentes do mundo.<\/p>\n

Esse di\u00adna\u00admismo co\u00admer\u00adcial de\u00adcor\u00adrente da van\u00adtagem ge\u00ado\u00adgr\u00e1\u00adfica d\u00e1 \u00e0 eco\u00adnomia turca um po\u00adten\u00adcial per\u00adma\u00adnente e na\u00adtural para altas taxas de cres\u00adci\u00admento da pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o in\u00adterna.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 por isso que, com um cres\u00adci\u00admento do PIB de 7,4% no ano de 2007, a eco\u00adnomia da Tur\u00adquia fi\u00adgura entre as que crescem mais ace\u00adle\u00adra\u00adda\u00admente no mundo. Su\u00adpera at\u00e9 as \u201ccam\u00adpe\u00e3s\u201d China e \u00cdndia.<\/p>\n

Faz tempo que a Tur\u00adquia n\u00e3o para de crescer. No pe\u00adr\u00edodo de 2003-2007, o per\u00adcen\u00adtual m\u00e9dio de cres\u00adci\u00admento anual da eco\u00adnomia turca foi de 7%, en\u00adquanto no pe\u00adr\u00edodo 2010-2017, o cres\u00adci\u00admento m\u00e9dio foi de 6.8%. Al\u00adcan\u00ad\u00e7ava-se o auge de um \u201cmi\u00adlagre econ\u00f4\u00admico\u201d!<\/p>\n

No pri\u00admeiro se\u00admestre deste ano, ainda man\u00adtinha a as\u00adsom\u00adbrosa taxa de cres\u00adci\u00admento 7,4% com o valor adi\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnado do setor in\u00addus\u00adtrial au\u00admen\u00adtando 8,8% em termos anuais; in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admentos em equi\u00adpa\u00admentos e m\u00e1\u00adquinas au\u00admen\u00adtando 7%; 6,9% na cons\u00adtru\u00e7\u00e3o civil e 4,6% na pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00ed\u00adcola.<\/p>\n

Em termos qua\u00adli\u00adta\u00adtivos, a eco\u00adnomia turca re\u00adgistra tamb\u00e9m a maior pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade dentre todas as eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnadas da pe\u00adri\u00adferia do sis\u00adtema global. Seu PIB per ca\u00adpita (por ha\u00adbi\u00adtante) anual de 15.000 d\u00f3\u00adlares su\u00adpera o da R\u00fassia (11.400); Brasil (10.800); Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina (10.400); M\u00e9\u00adxico (9.900); \u00c1frica do Sul (7.500); China (7.300) e \u00cdndia (1.963).<\/p>\n

Os pro\u00adblemas es\u00adtri\u00adta\u00admente econ\u00f4\u00admicos que le\u00advaram a pre\u00adsente crise cam\u00adbial na Tur\u00adquia n\u00e3o foram even\u00adtuais \u201cde\u00adse\u00adqui\u00adl\u00ed\u00adbrios ma\u00adcro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admicos\u201d. N\u00e3o existem graves pro\u00adblemas fis\u00adcais, mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrios e ou\u00adtras va\u00adri\u00e1\u00adveis do setor p\u00fa\u00adblico turco, como pro\u00adcuram de\u00admons\u00adtrar, neste mo\u00admento, as ca\u00adbe\u00e7as pro\u00adto\u00adco\u00adlares dos eco\u00adno\u00admistas do mer\u00adcado.<\/p>\n

Todos esses eco\u00adno\u00admistas, sejam li\u00adbe\u00adrais, key\u00adne\u00adsi\u00adanos, mar\u00adxistas uni\u00adver\u00adsi\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrios, sin\u00addi\u00adca\u00adlistas etc., se\u00adguem mais ou menos o pro\u00adto\u00adcolo do FMI e grandes bancos para tentar ex\u00adplicar esta crise que, para eles, n\u00e3o \u00e9 mais do que uma re\u00adpe\u00adti\u00e7\u00e3o de an\u00adtigas e mo\u00addor\u00adrentas crises cam\u00adbiais na pe\u00adri\u00adferia do sis\u00adtema.<\/p>\n

E acabam cul\u00adpando as pr\u00f3\u00adprias vir\u00adtudes da eco\u00adnomia turca \u2013 ele\u00advada ex\u00adpans\u00e3o dos in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admentos, da pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade, da pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o, do em\u00adprego, do cr\u00e9\u00addito, do co\u00adm\u00e9rcio etc. \u2013 como as grandes cul\u00adpadas pela crise cam\u00adbial que tri\u00adtura sua fraqu\u00eds\u00adsima e in\u00adcon\u00adver\u00ads\u00edvel moeda na\u00adci\u00adonal.<\/p>\n

Toda su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o ser\u00e1 cas\u00adti\u00adgada<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sa\u00adbemos que esse \u00e9 o des\u00adtino de qual\u00adquer eco\u00adnomia ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlista na\u00adci\u00adonal, do\u00admi\u00adnante ou do\u00admi\u00adnada. Uma con\u00adtra\u00addi\u00e7\u00e3o ma\u00adte\u00adrial ines\u00adca\u00adp\u00e1vel sempre mis\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adcada pela con\u00adde\u00adna\u00e7\u00e3o moral dos eco\u00adno\u00admistas.<\/p>\n

Sempre os re\u00adpe\u00adti\u00adtivos eco\u00adno\u00admistas com aquela mo\u00adn\u00f3\u00adtona la\u00addainha ide\u00ado\u00adl\u00f3\u00adgica de n\u00e3o con\u00addenar os ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas pri\u00advados in\u00addus\u00adtriais e ou\u00adtros pa\u00adra\u00adsitas so\u00adciais su\u00adbal\u00adternos \u2013 que, como sabem todos os bons ci\u00adda\u00add\u00e3os, s\u00e3o os ver\u00adda\u00addeiros man\u00addantes e be\u00adne\u00adfi\u00adci\u00e1\u00adrios deste san\u00adgui\u00adn\u00e1rio en\u00adredo his\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrico \u2013 mas des\u00adlocar a culpa pela crise para en\u00adti\u00addades abs\u00adtratas e po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adticas, para a ir\u00adres\u00adpon\u00adsa\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade fiscal e mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria dos go\u00advernos e ou\u00adtros \u00e1libis for\u00adjados apenas para isentar o sis\u00adtema im\u00adpe\u00adri\u00ada\u00adlista e aquelas classes do\u00admi\u00adnantes na\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais da sua res\u00adpon\u00adsa\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade.<\/p>\n

N\u00e3o po\u00adderia ser di\u00adfe\u00adrente na atual crise cam\u00adbial da Tur\u00adquia. Mais uma vez con\u00addena-se apenas o go\u00adverno turco (o de\u00admo\u00adni\u00adzado Er\u00addogan, para ser mais exato) por ter in\u00adcen\u00adti\u00advado uma \u201cde\u00adsen\u00adfreada ex\u00adpans\u00e3o econ\u00f4\u00admica\u201d. \u00c9 o caso do eco\u00adno\u00admista Peter S. Go\u00adodman, um exemplo menos so\u00adfr\u00edvel no meio da\u00adquela malta acima ci\u00adtada, que es\u00adcreve su\u00adges\u00adtiva ma\u00adt\u00e9ria para o The New York Times (12 de julho de 2018) sobre o que se po\u00adderia chamar de in\u00adfor\u00adt\u00fa\u00adnios da vir\u00adtude de uma eco\u00adnomia do\u00admi\u00adnada e sem moeda da pe\u00adri\u00adferia ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlista.<\/p>\n

O me\u00adlhor desta ma\u00adt\u00e9ria \u00e9 que Go\u00adodman pre\u00adnuncia o grande der\u00adre\u00adti\u00admento da lira que acon\u00adteceu nos dias se\u00adguintes: \u201co temor de um de\u00adsastre pode pa\u00adrecer im\u00adpr\u00f3\u00adprio em uma eco\u00adnomia que per\u00adma\u00adnece uma das com maior cres\u00adci\u00admento no pla\u00adneta, ex\u00adpan\u00addindo 7,4% no ano pas\u00adsado. Mas esse cres\u00adci\u00admento \u00e9 ali\u00admen\u00adtado por to\u00admada de em\u00adpr\u00e9s\u00adtimo po\u00adten\u00adci\u00adal\u00admente in\u00adsus\u00adten\u00adt\u00e1vel, tanto p\u00fa\u00adblica quanto pri\u00advada. Muitas em\u00adpresas to\u00admaram em moeda es\u00adtran\u00adgeira, o que sig\u00adni\u00adfica que suas d\u00ed\u00advidas au\u00admen\u00adtaram com a des\u00adva\u00adlo\u00adri\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o da lira. Grandes em\u00adpresas turcas agora est\u00e3o ten\u00adtando per\u00adsu\u00adadir os bancos e ou\u00adtros cre\u00addores a pro\u00adlongar os prazos e ou\u00adtras formas de ajuda, talvez pre\u00adnun\u00adci\u00adando uma onda de fa\u00adl\u00ean\u00adcias que pode vir a deixar ins\u00adti\u00adtui\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es fi\u00adnan\u00adceiras e con\u00adtri\u00adbuintes di\u00adante de perdas gi\u00adgan\u00adtescas. At\u00e9 o final de abril, as em\u00adpresas do setor pri\u00advado turco de\u00adviam mais de US$ 245 bi\u00adlh\u00f5es no ex\u00adte\u00adrior, ou quase um ter\u00e7o do ta\u00admanho total da eco\u00adnomia do pa\u00eds\u201d.<\/p>\n

O t\u00ed\u00adtulo sur\u00adpre\u00aden\u00adden\u00adte\u00admente di\u00ada\u00adl\u00e9\u00adtico da ma\u00adt\u00e9ria \u2013 \u201cCres\u00adci\u00admento econ\u00f4\u00admico de\u00adsen\u00adfreado pode levar a eco\u00adnomia da Tur\u00adquia a um co\u00adlapso\u201d \u2013, en\u00adtre\u00adtanto, n\u00e3o ajuda o autor da ma\u00adt\u00e9ria a res\u00adponder \u00e0 pr\u00f3\u00adpria con\u00adtra\u00addi\u00e7\u00e3o que ele ob\u00adserva de ma\u00adneira in\u00adg\u00eanua na atual si\u00adtu\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4\u00admica turca: o fato de que as mo\u00addernas crises pe\u00adri\u00f3\u00addicas de su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o global de ca\u00adpital s\u00e3o sempre anun\u00adci\u00adadas por uma forma apa\u00adren\u00adte\u00admente an\u00adtiga de mera crise de cr\u00e9\u00addito.<\/p>\n

Marx ob\u00adser\u00advava que Smith s\u00f3 en\u00adxer\u00adgava a crise do ca\u00adpital como uma crise mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria, ou de cr\u00e9\u00addito, por que essa ainda era a forma de crise que pre\u00addo\u00admi\u00adnava em sua \u00e9poca. A pre\u00addo\u00admi\u00adn\u00e2ncia da mo\u00adderna crise de su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o de ca\u00adpital, ca\u00adrac\u00adte\u00adr\u00eds\u00adtica do novo re\u00adgime so\u00adcial de pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o, s\u00f3 po\u00adder\u00e1 ser tes\u00adte\u00admu\u00adnhada por Ri\u00adcardo, Malthus, Say etc., a partir do in\u00edcio do s\u00e9\u00adculo 19.<\/p>\n

Neste sen\u00adtido, podem-se ob\u00adservar al\u00adgumas coisas im\u00adpor\u00adtantes na atual crise cam\u00adbial turca. Em pri\u00admeiro lugar, n\u00e3o \u00e9 uma crise ge\u00adrada ge\u00adne\u00adti\u00adca\u00admente pela po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica econ\u00f4\u00admica (mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria ou fiscal) do go\u00adverno, mas pelas de\u00adci\u00ads\u00f5es de pro\u00adduzir em busca de uma m\u00e1\u00adxima taxa de lucro, to\u00admadas pelos ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas e ou\u00adtros ren\u00adtistas pri\u00advados no in\u00adte\u00adrior da eco\u00adnomia e, no ex\u00adte\u00adrior, pelos \u201cin\u00adves\u00adti\u00addores\u201d e grandes bancos glo\u00adbais da Eu\u00adropa e EUA.<\/p>\n

Quase 40% do total de em\u00adpr\u00e9s\u00adtimos na eco\u00adnomia turca s\u00e3o de\u00adno\u00admi\u00adnados em d\u00f3lar e, muito im\u00adpor\u00adtante, quase 90% deste total est\u00e3o con\u00adcen\u00adtrados di\u00adre\u00adta\u00admente nos ba\u00adlan\u00e7os das em\u00adpresas pri\u00advadas da eco\u00adnomia. D\u00ed\u00advida pri\u00advada, n\u00e3o do go\u00adverno. E o vo\u00adlume dessa d\u00ed\u00advida ban\u00adc\u00e1ria pode re\u00adal\u00admente causar grandes es\u00adtragos em al\u00adguns bancos da Es\u00adpanha, Fran\u00e7a e It\u00e1lia \u2013 mas nem \u00e9 re\u00adla\u00adti\u00adva\u00admente t\u00e3o grande se com\u00adpa\u00adrada com o mo\u00adnu\u00admental cres\u00adci\u00admento da pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o de ca\u00adpital que ela fi\u00adnan\u00adciou.<\/p>\n

Est\u00e1 claro, por\u00adtanto, que n\u00e3o \u00e9 o setor p\u00fa\u00adblico turco que est\u00e1 en\u00addi\u00advi\u00addado e, por\u00adtanto, ina\u00addim\u00adplente. \u00c9 a \u201cini\u00adci\u00ada\u00adtiva pri\u00advada\u201d t\u00e3o ze\u00adlo\u00adsa\u00admente blin\u00addada pelas la\u00addai\u00adnhas ide\u00ado\u00adl\u00f3\u00adgicas dos seus eco\u00adno\u00admistas e sua m\u00eddia im\u00adpe\u00adri\u00ada\u00adlista global.<\/p>\n

De todo modo, o im\u00adpor\u00adtante a sa\u00adli\u00adentar \u00e9 que, in\u00adde\u00adpen\u00adden\u00adte\u00admente dos falsos di\u00adag\u00adn\u00f3s\u00adticos dos eco\u00adno\u00admistas, fica di\u00adf\u00edcil ima\u00adginar agora a re\u00adpe\u00adti\u00e7\u00e3o da\u00adquelas pro\u00advi\u00add\u00ean\u00adcias pro\u00adto\u00adco\u00adlares de crises cam\u00adbiais pas\u00adsadas para um even\u00adtual res\u00adgate da eco\u00adnomia turca pelo FMI, Banco Mun\u00addial, Te\u00adsouro dos EUA, Ale\u00admanha etc.<\/p>\n

A crise turca atual \u00e9 fun\u00adda\u00admen\u00adtal\u00admente di\u00adfe\u00adrente, por exemplo, da crise grega de cinco anos atr\u00e1s. Ou, prin\u00adci\u00adpal\u00admente, da crise do in\u00edcio dos anos 2000, quando tanto Tur\u00adquia quanto a Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina com\u00adpar\u00adti\u00adlhavam grandes d\u00e9\u00adfi\u00adcits p\u00fa\u00adblicos, grandes d\u00e9\u00adfi\u00adcits em conta cor\u00adrente, fuga de ca\u00adpi\u00adtais e, fi\u00adnal\u00admente, de\u00adpre\u00adci\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es cam\u00adbiais.<\/p>\n

Esses grandes de\u00adse\u00adqui\u00adl\u00ed\u00adbrios do setor p\u00fa\u00adblico (ma\u00adcro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admicos) em eco\u00adno\u00admias iso\u00adladas n\u00e3o s\u00e3o mais o de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adnante do risco ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlista nestas grandes eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnadas da pe\u00adri\u00adferia, como Tur\u00adquia, Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina, Brasil, China etc.<\/p>\n

O de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adnante n\u00e3o \u00e9 mais do an\u00adtigo ca\u00adpital mer\u00adcantil (co\u00admer\u00adcial e ban\u00adc\u00e1rio), mas a for\u00e7a da pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o e da su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o glo\u00adba\u00adli\u00adzada, que, en\u00adquanto pro\u00adcesso de va\u00adlo\u00adri\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o em ex\u00adpans\u00e3o, subs\u00adtitui e con\u00addi\u00adciona dra\u00adma\u00adti\u00adca\u00admente a a\u00e7\u00e3o po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica dos go\u00advernos na\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais, quer dizer, a im\u00adplan\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o e ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00e7\u00e3o da po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica econ\u00f4\u00admica em seu sen\u00adtido mais tra\u00addi\u00adci\u00adonal.<\/p>\n

Trata-se agora, de ma\u00adneira mais in\u00adtensa do que se co\u00adnhecia pela pri\u00admeira no p\u00f3s-guerra (1945), da de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adna\u00e7\u00e3o de um risco geral. Ele afeta mais as eco\u00adno\u00admias na\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais do que in\u00addi\u00adca\u00addores ma\u00adcro\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admicos in\u00addi\u00advi\u00adduais chaves, como ba\u00adlan\u00e7o de conta cor\u00adrente, in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o, re\u00adservas in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais, d\u00ed\u00advida p\u00fa\u00adblica, d\u00e9\u00adficit fiscal etc.<\/p>\n

Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina<\/strong><\/p>\n

No en\u00adcer\u00adra\u00admento de mais um pe\u00adr\u00edodo de su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o, o risco geral atinge pri\u00admei\u00adra\u00admente as grandes eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnadas da pe\u00adri\u00adferia do sis\u00adtema im\u00adpe\u00adrial. \u00c9 por isso que se pode ob\u00adservar tamb\u00e9m, nesta se\u00admana, que o es\u00adpa\u00e7o para cair da Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina ainda \u00e9 muito grande, im\u00adpre\u00advi\u00ads\u00edvel, mesmo de\u00adpois do grande pa\u00adcote de res\u00adgate do FMI, como h\u00e1 pouco menos de dois meses atr\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

Mesmo com a blin\u00addagem do FMI e toda a boa von\u00adtade de Washington em apoiar o atual go\u00adverno ul\u00adtra\u00adli\u00adberal ar\u00adgen\u00adtino, nesta se\u00adgunda-feira (13\/08) o d\u00f3lar su\u00adperou os 30 pesos, em Bu\u00adenos Aires. Para conter o der\u00adre\u00adti\u00admento da moeda, o go\u00adverno Macri elevou a taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica em cinco pontos por\u00adcen\u00adtuais, para 45% \u2013 a maior taxa do mundo.<\/p>\n

Outro fen\u00f4\u00admeno im\u00adpor\u00adtante que se ob\u00adserva com esta crise na Tur\u00adquia \u00e9 que o \u201ccon\u00adt\u00e1gio\u201d de crises cam\u00adbiais n\u00e3o se ori\u00adgina mais de riscos ge\u00adrados por eco\u00adno\u00admias iso\u00adladas como as da Tur\u00adquia, R\u00fassia, Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina etc., mas do risco geral de um evi\u00addente en\u00adfra\u00adque\u00adci\u00admento sis\u00adt\u00ea\u00admico da to\u00adta\u00adli\u00addade do co\u00adm\u00e9rcio in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal.<\/p>\n

Na raiz deste en\u00adfra\u00adque\u00adci\u00admento do mo\u00adderno co\u00adm\u00e9rcio in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal en\u00adcontra-se uma cr\u00f4\u00adnica de\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o global dos pre\u00e7os das mer\u00adca\u00addo\u00adrias-ca\u00adpital (su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o global) que leva a uma luta por mer\u00adcados, guerras ta\u00adri\u00adf\u00e1\u00adrias, pro\u00adte\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnismo, rom\u00adpi\u00admentos de acordos in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais, Do\u00adnald Trump, Er\u00addogan e ou\u00adtras miu\u00addezas do pro\u00adcesso.<\/p>\n

Nunca \u00e9 de\u00admais re\u00adpetir, at\u00e9 mesmo ru\u00adminar, que o au\u00admento da vul\u00adne\u00adra\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade e dos riscos cam\u00adbiais em todo o mer\u00adcado mun\u00addial apa\u00adrece pri\u00admei\u00adra\u00admente nas eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnadas e sem mo\u00adedas con\u00adver\u00ads\u00ed\u00adveis.<\/p>\n

Essa regra geral n\u00e3o im\u00adpede, en\u00adtre\u00adtanto, que mesmo entre as eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnantes do G-7 (sete mai\u00adores eco\u00adno\u00admias do mundo) os efeitos do risco geral j\u00e1 se apre\u00adsentem an\u00adte\u00adci\u00adpa\u00adda\u00admente. Em no\u00adbres eco\u00adno\u00admias como a It\u00e1lia, por exemplo. Mas o der\u00adre\u00adti\u00admento de mo\u00adedas con\u00adver\u00ads\u00ed\u00adveis, que nunca ocorreu nos \u00fal\u00adtimos 70 anos, deve ser tra\u00adtado em fu\u00adturo bo\u00adletim.<\/p>\n

O im\u00adpor\u00adtante agora \u00e9 nunca se es\u00adquecer deste im\u00adpor\u00adtante de\u00adtalhe que, di\u00adfe\u00adren\u00adte\u00admente da It\u00e1lia e de ou\u00adtras eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnantes, tanto o Brasil, quanto China, \u00cdndia, R\u00fassia, Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina, M\u00e9\u00adxico etc. n\u00e3o t\u00eam moeda con\u00adver\u00ads\u00edvel, \u201cmoeda forte\u201d. \u00c9 por isso que \u2013 le\u00advando-se em conta apenas a re\u00ada\u00adli\u00addade dos mer\u00adcados mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrios e de di\u00advisas in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais \u2013 s\u00e3o essas des\u00adclas\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adcadas eco\u00adno\u00admias do sis\u00adtema im\u00adpe\u00adri\u00ada\u00adlista as pri\u00admeiras a so\u00adfrer os abalos de um risco geral, como se ob\u00adservou nesta se\u00admana e com maior cla\u00adreza na Tur\u00adquia e Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina.<\/p>\n

Con\u00adclus\u00e3o<\/strong><\/p>\n

Uma \u00fal\u00adtima ob\u00adser\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o dos fatos desta se\u00admana. Em pers\u00adpec\u00adtiva, as eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnadas com maior vo\u00adlume de pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o e fla\u00adgrante su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o de ca\u00adpital s\u00e3o as mais vul\u00adne\u00adr\u00e1\u00adveis a esse risco geral do mer\u00adcado cam\u00adbial in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal.<\/p>\n

De\u00advido ao es\u00adtrei\u00adta\u00admento re\u00adla\u00adtivo do mer\u00adcado in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal essas grandes eco\u00adno\u00admias da pe\u00adri\u00adferia (prin\u00adci\u00adpal\u00admente as que ainda os\u00adtentam taxas ele\u00advadas de ex\u00adpans\u00e3o do pro\u00adduto in\u00adterno bruto) est\u00e3o mais ex\u00adpostas a ful\u00admi\u00adnantes ata\u00adques es\u00adpe\u00adcu\u00adla\u00adtivos do mer\u00adcado cam\u00adbial in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal nos pr\u00f3\u00adximos meses ou tri\u00admes\u00adtres.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 neste sen\u00adtido que, de\u00adpois da Tur\u00adquia, pode-se listar o yuan chin\u00eas e a r\u00fapia in\u00addiana como for\u00adt\u00eds\u00adsimas can\u00addi\u00addatas a serem pro\u00adxi\u00adma\u00admente der\u00adre\u00adtidas no alto forno cre\u00adma\u00adt\u00f3rio de mo\u00adedas fr\u00e1\u00adgeis da ordem im\u00adpe\u00adri\u00ada\u00adlista global.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.correiocidadania.com.br\/2-uncategorised\/13416-de-istambul-a-buenos-aires-as-moedas-derretem<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 Martins – O\u00a0piso do enorme palco do co\u00adm\u00e9rcio in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal est\u00e1 ce\u00addendo. E as mo\u00adedas das eco\u00adno\u00admias mais fr\u00e1\u00adgeis do sis\u00adtema an\u00adte\u00adcipam o de\u00adsa\u00adba\u00admento geral. A Tur\u00adquia e a Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina s\u00e3o os casos mais evi\u00addentes deste pro\u00adcesso. A coisa \u00e9 mais pe\u00adsada do que ima\u00adgina a v\u00e3 eco\u00adnomia. Recep Er\u00addogan, pre\u00adsi\u00addente da Tur\u00adquia, de\u00adclarou na […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8973,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[49],"class_list":["post-8972","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-conjuntura"],"yoast_head":"\nDe Istambul a Buenos Aires, as moedas derretem - Controversia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2018\/08\/23\/de-istambul-a-buenos-aires-as-moedas-derretem\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"De Istambul a Buenos Aires, as moedas derretem - Controversia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 Martins – O\u00a0piso do enorme palco do co\u00adm\u00e9rcio in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal est\u00e1 ce\u00addendo. 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