{"id":6575,"date":"2017-12-29T11:30:29","date_gmt":"2017-12-29T13:30:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/controversia.com.br\/?p=6575"},"modified":"2017-12-29T11:26:59","modified_gmt":"2017-12-29T13:26:59","slug":"a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2017\/12\/29\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\/","title":{"rendered":"A taxa b\u00e1sica de juros est\u00e1 mesmo caindo?!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f4mica da Maioria<\/strong> –\u00a0Em sua reu\u00adni\u00e3o de 07\/12\/2017, o Con\u00adselho de Po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica Mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria (COPOM) de\u00adcidiu baixar a taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica de juros (SELiC) para o seu menor pa\u00adtamar his\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrico, 7% ao ano (1). O “mer\u00adcado” co\u00adme\u00admora o feito, como se agora fi\u00adnal\u00admente o Banco Cen\u00adtral es\u00adti\u00advesse le\u00advando adi\u00adante uma po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica mais ami\u00adg\u00e1vel. Mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 bem assim e muitos deles sabem, em\u00adbora digam ci\u00adni\u00adca\u00admente o con\u00adtr\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n

A taxa SELiC no\u00adminal (a que baixou a 7% a.a.) n\u00e3o sig\u00adni\u00adfica tanto assim. A va\u00adri\u00e1vel re\u00adle\u00advante para ava\u00adliar a po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria, a po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica que es\u00adta\u00adbe\u00adlece o “pre\u00e7o” do di\u00adnheiro e a sua quan\u00adti\u00addade dis\u00adpo\u00adn\u00edvel, \u00e9 a taxa de juros REAL, isto \u00e9, a taxa no\u00adminal menos a taxa de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Quando os juros “caem” e au\u00admentam ao mesmo tempo<\/strong><\/p>\n

Como po\u00addemos en\u00adxergar com toda a cla\u00adreza no gr\u00e1\u00adfico, as de\u00adci\u00ads\u00f5es do COPOM sobre o n\u00edvel da taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica de juros acom\u00adpa\u00adnharam “pari passu” a flu\u00adtu\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o do n\u00edvel geral de pre\u00e7os nos \u00fal\u00adtimos tr\u00eas anos. Mas dir\u00e1 o eco\u00adno\u00admista ne\u00ado\u00adli\u00adberal de plant\u00e3o: “ah, claro, o Banco Cen\u00adtral age de ma\u00adneira ‘res\u00adpon\u00ads\u00e1vel’ para con\u00adtrolar o n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7os, au\u00admen\u00adtando os juros sempre que ‘ne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1rio’ para conter a ace\u00adle\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o” (!)… Quanta bo\u00adbagem!<\/p>\n

A ver\u00addade \u00e9 que o ra\u00adci\u00ado\u00adc\u00ednio do nosso eco\u00adno\u00admista ne\u00ado\u00adli\u00adberal sim\u00adples\u00admente con\u00adfunde causa e efeito. O au\u00admento da in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o \u201ccausa\u201d o au\u00admento dos juros, o que n\u00e3o \u00e9 algo ne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1rio, \u00e9 uma de\u00adcis\u00e3o po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica; mas o au\u00admento dos juros ajuda em pouco ou quase nada a re\u00adduzir a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o, porque os juros \u201cbaixos\u201d (que na ver\u00addade n\u00e3o eram baixos!) n\u00e3o eram a causa de fato do au\u00admento da in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

No pe\u00adr\u00edodo em quest\u00e3o, pode-se ter ab\u00adso\u00adluta cer\u00adteza que a taxa de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o ace\u00adlerou de\u00advido a causas que n\u00e3o ti\u00adnham ab\u00adso\u00adlu\u00adta\u00admente nada a ver com a taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica de juros ou o n\u00edvel da “de\u00admanda agre\u00adgada” da eco\u00adnomia, que leva em con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o a dis\u00adpo\u00adni\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade de cr\u00e9\u00addito (vamos tratar disso mais adi\u00adante).<\/p>\n

Por outro lado, de\u00adfen\u00addemos que a taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica de juros acom\u00adpa\u00adnhou pa\u00adra\u00adle\u00adla\u00admente (e a pos\u00adte\u00adriori) a su\u00adbida do n\u00edvel de pre\u00e7os \u00fanica e ex\u00adclu\u00adsi\u00adva\u00admente para manter uma quantia “acei\u00adt\u00e1vel” de pa\u00adga\u00admento de juros reais (um dos mais altos do mundo!) aos ren\u00adtistas em geral e ban\u00adqueiros em par\u00adti\u00adcular.<\/p>\n

Era pre\u00adciso fazer o di\u00adnheiro dos ricos render! Por que os ricos pre\u00adci\u00adsa\u00adriam ex\u00adplorar for\u00e7a de tra\u00adbalho para fazer mais di\u00adnheiro se a eco\u00adnomia de\u00adsa\u00adce\u00adle\u00adrava e os juros reais es\u00adtavam an\u00adco\u00adrados na m\u00e9dia dos 5% a.a.? Al\u00e9m disso, como po\u00addemos ob\u00adservar, a taxa de de\u00adso\u00adcu\u00adpa\u00e7\u00e3o, mais co\u00adnhe\u00adcida como de\u00adsem\u00adprego, EX\u00adPLODIU em de\u00adcor\u00adr\u00eancia di\u00adreta do au\u00admento dos juros, numa ver\u00adda\u00addeira re\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o de cau\u00adsa\u00adli\u00addade.<\/p>\n

O cu\u00adrioso dessa his\u00adt\u00f3ria \u00e9 que quando os juros no\u00admi\u00adnais es\u00adti\u00adveram mais altos, em 14.25 a.a., os juros reais efe\u00adti\u00adva\u00admente pagos che\u00adgaram ao n\u00edvel mais “baixo” – em\u00adbora alto, de todo caso (ja\u00adneiro de 2016). Por outro lado, quando os juros pa\u00adre\u00adciam “cair” mais ace\u00adle\u00adra\u00adda\u00admente, ti\u00advemos a maior taxa de juros reais re\u00adgis\u00adtrada (ja\u00adneiro de 2017). Isso de\u00admonstra como faz pouco sen\u00adtido a eu\u00adforia com a “queda” dos juros que, re\u00adpe\u00adtimos, mant\u00e9m-se, em termos reais, es\u00adt\u00e1vel em ele\u00advado pa\u00adtamar ao longo dos \u00fal\u00adtimos tr\u00eas anos.<\/p>\n

Como fun\u00adciona a SELiC?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A Taxa SELiC \u00e9 a taxa de\u00adfi\u00adnida de\u00adli\u00adbe\u00adra\u00adda\u00admente pelo Banco Cen\u00adtral que re\u00admu\u00adnera a maior parte da car\u00adteira de t\u00ed\u00adtulos do pr\u00f3\u00adprio Banco Cen\u00adtral.
\nCom uma quan\u00adti\u00addade co\u00adlossal de t\u00ed\u00adtulos, grosso modo, dia ap\u00f3s dia o Banco Cen\u00adtral re\u00ada\u00adliza ope\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es de compra e venda de t\u00ed\u00adtulos em troca de re\u00adservas ban\u00adc\u00e1\u00adrias, re\u00adgu\u00adlando deste modo a dis\u00adpo\u00adni\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade de di\u00adnheiro na eco\u00adnomia como um todo (“li\u00adquidez”).<\/p>\n

Se a taxa SELiC des\u00adcon\u00adtada a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 alta, os bancos sim\u00adples\u00admente adoram, porque o go\u00adverno lhes ga\u00adrante alta re\u00admu\u00adne\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o sem ne\u00adnhum risco; logo, eles n\u00e3o pre\u00adcisam tanto em\u00adprestar para fa\u00adm\u00ed\u00adlias e em\u00adpresas, o que po\u00adderia ter risco de ina\u00addim\u00adpl\u00eancia, e isso ex\u00adplica porque as taxas de juros co\u00adbradas pelos bancos s\u00e3o sur\u00adre\u00adal\u00admente altas*.<\/p>\n

Para saber com de\u00adta\u00adlhes como fun\u00adciona a taxa SELiC, clique aqui: https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bu76F5J<\/p>\n

In\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o e de\u00adsem\u00adprego<\/strong><\/p>\n

Se\u00adgundo os eco\u00adno\u00admistas ne\u00ado\u00adli\u00adbe\u00adrais ou “or\u00adto\u00addoxos”, baixo de\u00adsem\u00adprego pro\u00advoca alta in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o, porque isso sig\u00adni\u00adfica que as pes\u00adsoas est\u00e3o con\u00adsu\u00admindo de\u00admais e isso est\u00e1 su\u00adplan\u00adtando a ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade de ofertar os bens e ser\u00advi\u00e7os a serem con\u00adsu\u00admidos. Nosso gr\u00e1\u00adfico mostra o ta\u00admanho dessa bo\u00adbagem. Em 2014, e antes, t\u00ed\u00adnhamos baixo de\u00adsem\u00adprego e in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o con\u00adtro\u00adlada.<\/p>\n

A in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o, por sua vez, s\u00f3 ace\u00adlerou a partir de 2015 por causa de fa\u00adtores que n\u00e3o ti\u00adnham nada a ver com a “de\u00admanda” (muito cr\u00e9\u00addito, muito in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admento, muito em\u00adprego, muito sa\u00adl\u00e1rio, muito con\u00adsumo), mas sim com CUSTOS. A curva do de\u00adsem\u00adprego, por sua vez, foi pu\u00adxada pela curva dos juros.<\/p>\n

Juros e in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pelo ra\u00adci\u00ado\u00adc\u00ednio de nosso eco\u00adno\u00admista ne\u00ado\u00adli\u00adberal ou “or\u00adto\u00addoxo”, tudo se passa como se o di\u00adnheiro ba\u00adrato (cr\u00e9\u00addito) pres\u00adsi\u00ado\u00adnasse a de\u00admanda das fa\u00adm\u00ed\u00adlias e em\u00adpresas por bens e ser\u00advi\u00e7os, quando a ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade da eco\u00adnomia de ofertar esses bens e ser\u00advi\u00e7os se en\u00adcontra no seu li\u00admite, sem ne\u00adnhuma oci\u00ado\u00adsi\u00addade, de modo que ten\u00adderia a en\u00adca\u00adrecer os bens e ser\u00advi\u00e7os… O ra\u00adci\u00ado\u00adc\u00ednio \u00e9 t\u00e3o co\u00ade\u00adrente quanto, no caso, falso.<\/p>\n

Como se pode ob\u00adservar no gr\u00e1\u00adfico, o di\u00adnheiro n\u00e3o es\u00adtava exa\u00adta\u00admente “ba\u00adrato” em 2014, pois seu pre\u00e7o (juro real, ou seja, SELIC menos in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o) \u00e9 es\u00adt\u00e1vel em toda a s\u00e9rie. Al\u00e9m disso, a eco\u00adnomia es\u00adtava de\u00adsa\u00adce\u00adle\u00adrando (2) e havia em torno de 20% de ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade ociosa na in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria, o que sig\u00adni\u00adfica que a eco\u00adnomia n\u00e3o es\u00adtava nem perto de pro\u00adduzir tudo o que podia pro\u00adduzir, de modo que a de\u00admanda su\u00adplan\u00adtasse a oferta e isso au\u00admen\u00adtasse os pre\u00e7os (3). Logo, o ra\u00adci\u00ado\u00adc\u00ednio “or\u00adto\u00addoxo”, no caso em quest\u00e3o, n\u00e3o faz o menor sen\u00adtido.<\/p>\n

Assim, o que causou a ace\u00adle\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o a partir de ja\u00adneiro de 2015? Algo que n\u00e3o tinha nada a ver com taxa de juros e que tamb\u00e9m era de total con\u00adtrole do go\u00adverno: o au\u00admento dos pre\u00e7os ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtrados.<\/p>\n

As an\u00e1\u00adlises da com\u00adpo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o do prin\u00adcipal \u00edn\u00addice de pre\u00e7os do pa\u00eds, IPCA, ao longo de todo o ano de 2015 mos\u00adtram que os prin\u00adci\u00adpais res\u00adpon\u00ads\u00e1\u00adveis pela alta dos pre\u00e7os foram os au\u00admentos na energia el\u00e9\u00adtrica, g\u00e1s de co\u00adzinha, com\u00adbus\u00adt\u00ed\u00adveis, trans\u00adporte p\u00fa\u00adblico e pre\u00e7os de plano de sa\u00fade (4).<\/p>\n

\u201cA an\u00e1\u00adlise de\u00adsa\u00adgre\u00adgada do IPCA re\u00advela que a cor\u00adre\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtrados fez com que a sua va\u00adri\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o acu\u00admu\u00adlada em 12 meses sal\u00adtasse de 4,3% em maio de 2014 para 14,1% em maio deste ano\u201d (5)!<\/p>\n

Some-se a isso o peso da in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o de ali\u00admentos, em de\u00adcor\u00adr\u00eancia de fa\u00adtores ex\u00adtra\u00ade\u00adcon\u00f4\u00admicos, como eventos cli\u00adm\u00e1\u00adticos, o que n\u00e3o tem nada a ver com taxa de juros!<\/p>\n

Pro\u00adva\u00advel\u00admente, o \u00fanico ele\u00admento com al\u00adguma re\u00adle\u00adv\u00e2ncia na com\u00adpo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o da in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o do pe\u00adr\u00edodo que foi freado pelos juros altos \u00e9 a taxa de c\u00e2mbio. Se os juros s\u00e3o altos face a ou\u00adtros pa\u00edses, isso atrai di\u00advisas, o que va\u00adlo\u00adriza a moeda bra\u00adsi\u00adleira.<\/p>\n

Por outro lado, se o Real se des\u00adva\u00adlo\u00adriza, a im\u00adpor\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o de in\u00adsumos e bens de ca\u00adpital en\u00adca\u00adrece, e esses pre\u00e7os s\u00e3o re\u00adpas\u00adsados para os de\u00admais. Mas esse ele\u00admento foi apenas mar\u00adginal na com\u00adpo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o do \u00edn\u00addice.<\/p>\n

Com base no gr\u00e1\u00adfico, o m\u00e1\u00adximo que po\u00adde\u00adr\u00edamos ad\u00admitir \u00e9 que o au\u00admento ver\u00adti\u00adgi\u00adnoso do de\u00adsem\u00adprego apenas re\u00adfor\u00e7ou a de\u00adsa\u00adce\u00adle\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o pas\u00adsado o efeito do choque de pre\u00e7os ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtrados.<\/p>\n

Disso, o que po\u00addemos in\u00adferir com se\u00adgu\u00adran\u00e7a, \u00e9 que a taxa de juros au\u00admentou tendo a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o como pre\u00adtexto, mas a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o que de fato ocorreu no pe\u00adr\u00edodo n\u00e3o era sen\u00ads\u00edvel aos juros e foi pro\u00advo\u00adcada pelo pr\u00f3\u00adprio go\u00adverno. Do que se re\u00adsume que o go\u00adverno subiu os juros para dar uma \u201caju\u00addinha\u201d aos en\u00addi\u00adnhei\u00adrados, pro\u00adte\u00adgendo-os da crise (mesmo ao custo de pior\u00e1-la), em es\u00adpe\u00adcial os ban\u00adqueiros, que n\u00e3o \u00e0 toa ti\u00adveram os mai\u00adores lu\u00adcros da his\u00adt\u00f3ria ban\u00adc\u00e1ria bra\u00adsi\u00adleira em 2015 e 2016 (6).<\/p>\n

O Banco Cen\u00adtral, he\u00adge\u00admo\u00adni\u00adzado pelo pen\u00adsa\u00admento or\u00adto\u00addoxo, toma como seu prin\u00adcipal ob\u00adje\u00adtivo “pro\u00adteger o poder de compra da moeda na\u00adci\u00adonal”. Re\u00adsulta da\u00ed ele ser uma m\u00e3e su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00adte\u00adtora para os ricos, j\u00e1 que a pro\u00adte\u00e7\u00e3o do poder de compra da moeda sempre vem acom\u00adpa\u00adnhada de uma enorme “gor\u00addu\u00adrinha”.<\/p>\n

Juros e de\u00adsem\u00adprego<\/strong><\/p>\n

A ma\u00adnu\u00adten\u00e7\u00e3o de uma enorme taxa de juros reais, na\u00adtu\u00adral\u00admente, man\u00adteve o cr\u00e9\u00addito caro a que es\u00adtamos h\u00e1 muitos anos acos\u00adtu\u00admados, o que di\u00adfi\u00adculta o in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admento das em\u00adpresas (so\u00adbre\u00adtudo se\u00adtores sen\u00ads\u00ed\u00adveis a cr\u00e9\u00addito ba\u00adrato, como cons\u00adtru\u00e7\u00e3o civil) e o acesso das fa\u00adm\u00ed\u00adlias ao fi\u00adnan\u00adci\u00ada\u00admento de bens. Assim, re\u00adfor\u00e7ou-se a de\u00adte\u00adri\u00ado\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da ati\u00advi\u00addade econ\u00f4\u00admica, pro\u00addu\u00adzindo-se como re\u00adsul\u00adtado mais de\u00adsem\u00adprego.<\/p>\n

Para fazer frente a esses juros, o go\u00adverno co\u00adme\u00e7ou seu \u201cajuste fiscal\u201d cor\u00adtando gastos com a des\u00adculpa de de\u00adsa\u00adce\u00adlerar o au\u00admento da d\u00ed\u00advida p\u00fa\u00adblica, que cresceu de\u00adsen\u00adfre\u00ada\u00adda\u00admente, por sua vez, por causa da in\u00adcor\u00adpo\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o de juros ao es\u00adtoque e n\u00e3o porque gas\u00adt\u00e1\u00advamos muito com sa\u00fade, edu\u00adca\u00e7\u00e3o, in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admentos etc.<\/p>\n

Isso ocorreu porque pelo menos 1\/3 da D\u00ed\u00advida P\u00fa\u00adblica Fe\u00adderal in\u00adterna em t\u00ed\u00adtulos** \u00e9 atre\u00adlada \u00e0 SELiC (7), e os ou\u00adtros 2\/3 da d\u00ed\u00advida saem ainda mais caros para o Te\u00adsouro Na\u00adci\u00adonal. Logo, o au\u00admento da SELiC au\u00admenta a carga de juros, e como n\u00e3o d\u00e1 sim\u00adples\u00admente para “eco\u00adno\u00admizar” com todas as ou\u00adtras des\u00adpesas, esses juros s\u00e3o in\u00adcor\u00adpo\u00adrados \u00e0 d\u00ed\u00advida, sendo essa a raz\u00e3o para ela ter cres\u00adcido 21,4% em 2015, 11,45% em 2016 e 10,46% at\u00e9 ou\u00adtubro de 2017 (8).<\/p>\n

A re\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o do gasto p\u00fa\u00adblico gerou ainda mais de\u00adsem\u00adprego. Menos in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admentos p\u00fa\u00adblicos, menos sa\u00adl\u00e1\u00adrios pagos, menos en\u00adco\u00admendas \u00e0s em\u00adpresas etc. etc. O de\u00adsem\u00adprego, por sua vez, pro\u00adduziu uma ten\u00add\u00eancia ao re\u00adbai\u00adxa\u00admento dos sa\u00adl\u00e1\u00adrios, pois se h\u00e1 muita gente que\u00adrendo uma vaga, os pa\u00adtr\u00f5es apro\u00adveitam para pagar menos. Isso reduz o con\u00adsumo agre\u00adgado das fa\u00adm\u00ed\u00adlias e joga a ati\u00advi\u00addade econ\u00f4\u00admica ainda mais para baixo.<\/p>\n

Em con\u00adtra\u00adpar\u00adtida, na me\u00addida em que os sa\u00adl\u00e1\u00adrios foram re\u00adbai\u00adxados, o Es\u00adtado se en\u00addi\u00advidou ainda mais para manter a for\u00adtuna dos ricos, de modo que pa\u00adgamos mais de 500 bi\u00adlh\u00f5es em juros em 2015, mais de 400 bi\u00adlh\u00f5es em 2016 e j\u00e1 pa\u00adgamos at\u00e9 ou\u00adtubro de 2017 mais de 330 bi\u00adlh\u00f5es (9).<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, a bai\u00adx\u00eds\u00adsima in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o que ti\u00advemos em 2017 \u00e9 em parte ex\u00adpli\u00adcada pelo es\u00adtran\u00adgu\u00adla\u00admento do mer\u00adcado de tra\u00adbalho pela taxa de juros real.<\/p>\n

“Ah, mas os juros est\u00e3o caindo sim!”<\/strong><\/p>\n

Al\u00adguns eco\u00adno\u00admistas batem o p\u00e9 afir\u00admando que os juros reais est\u00e3o caindo porque seu c\u00e1l\u00adculo “ex-ante”, ou seja, com base na pro\u00adje\u00e7\u00e3o de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o em 12 meses, est\u00e1 in\u00addi\u00adcando queda acen\u00adtuada.<\/p>\n

Mas vejam bem: pro\u00adje\u00e7\u00e3o de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o e nada d\u00e3o no mesmo. Em ja\u00adneiro de 2017, o Banco Cen\u00adtral ca\u00adli\u00adbrava a taxa de juros ba\u00adse\u00adando-se em uma pro\u00adje\u00e7\u00e3o de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o para 2017 de 4,8% (10). Mas a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o que de fato vamos ter em 2017 ser\u00e1 de menos de 3%.<\/p>\n

N\u00e3o se pode des\u00adcartar a hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adtese de que o “mer\u00adcado” infle suas pr\u00f3\u00adprias ex\u00adpec\u00adta\u00adtivas de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o, cap\u00adtadas pelo Banco Cen\u00adtral…<\/p>\n

De todo caso, ocorre o se\u00adguinte: pouco im\u00adporta a ex\u00adpec\u00adta\u00adtiva de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o, pois o Banco Cen\u00adtral, que \u00e9 do\u00admi\u00adnado por gente muito pres\u00adta\u00adtiva com os ricos, vai sempre ajustar a taxa de juros con\u00adforme a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o que for se dando, e n\u00e3o com base nas ex\u00adpec\u00adta\u00adtivas de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 t\u00e3o so\u00admente por essa raz\u00e3o que os juros reais v\u00e3o con\u00adti\u00adnuar altos: a cada um m\u00eas e meio o Con\u00adselho de Po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica Mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria vai sim\u00adples\u00admente ajustar a taxa de juros ao que es\u00adtiver ocor\u00adrendo. E o fato de a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o efe\u00adtiva em 2017 ter sido t\u00e3o baixa (ao custo da ma\u00adnu\u00adten\u00e7\u00e3o de uma enorme e des\u00adne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1ria taxa de de\u00adsem\u00adprego) ex\u00adplica porque che\u00adgamos em um taxa de juros apa\u00adren\u00adte\u00admente t\u00e3o baixa em termos no\u00admi\u00adnais.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 por esses fatos serem ob\u00adser\u00adv\u00e1\u00adveis que pre\u00adfe\u00adrimos sim\u00adples\u00admente apontar uma ten\u00add\u00eancia sobre o que vai acon\u00adtecer no fu\u00adturo com base no que j\u00e1 acon\u00adteceu nos \u00fal\u00adtimos tr\u00eas anos, ao inv\u00e9s de nos ba\u00adse\u00adarmos em su\u00adpo\u00adsi\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es v\u00e3s.<\/p>\n

O fu\u00adturo do em\u00adprego<\/strong><\/p>\n

O choque de pre\u00e7os ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtrados, se\u00adguido pelo choque de juros, se\u00adguido de cortes de gastos p\u00fa\u00adblicos para fazer frente ao pa\u00adga\u00admento desses mesmos juros ser\u00adviram pra des\u00adlocar a curva do n\u00edvel de em\u00adprego para outro pa\u00adtamar (o que \u00e9 cris\u00adta\u00adlino no gr\u00e1\u00adfico).<\/p>\n

O ver\u00adda\u00addeiro “ajuste” foi com toda cer\u00adteza no mer\u00adcado de tra\u00adbalho!<\/p>\n

Dado o con\u00adge\u00adla\u00admento do gasto p\u00fa\u00adblico por longos 20 anos por causa do \u201cteto de gastos\u201d (Emenda Cons\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adci\u00adonal 95); dada a re\u00adforma tra\u00adba\u00adlhista, que re\u00adfor\u00e7a a ten\u00add\u00eancia ao re\u00adbai\u00adxa\u00admento dos sa\u00adl\u00e1\u00adrios e do con\u00adsumo das fa\u00adm\u00ed\u00adlias oca\u00adsi\u00ado\u00adnada pelo de\u00adsem\u00adprego; se passar a re\u00adforma da pre\u00advi\u00add\u00eancia, que ex\u00adclui o acesso a be\u00adne\u00adf\u00ed\u00adcios pre\u00advi\u00adden\u00adci\u00e1\u00adrios; dado que es\u00adtamos to\u00adtal\u00admente \u00e0 merc\u00ea do agro\u00adne\u00adg\u00f3cio vol\u00adtado para ex\u00adpor\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o, que gera poucos em\u00adpregos e baixo cres\u00adci\u00admento, por causa do pro\u00adcesso de de\u00adsin\u00addus\u00adtri\u00ada\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o e da cor\u00adros\u00e3o do mer\u00adcado in\u00adterno; e dado que o Banco Cen\u00adtral pro\u00adva\u00advel\u00admente con\u00adti\u00adnuar\u00e1 com uma po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria que tem como \u00fanica pre\u00admissa a ma\u00adnu\u00adten\u00e7\u00e3o da for\u00adtuna dos ricos: o ce\u00adn\u00e1rio mais pro\u00adv\u00e1vel para o fu\u00adturo do em\u00adprego \u00e9 que ele se \u201ces\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adlize\u201d com altas taxas de de\u00adso\u00adcu\u00adpa\u00e7\u00e3o e grande ro\u00adta\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade.<\/p>\n

Um fu\u00adturo di\u00adfe\u00adrente disso, com pleno em\u00adprego e uma Po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica Econ\u00f4\u00admica da Mai\u00adoria, s\u00f3 de\u00adpende de n\u00f3s.<\/p>\n

Re\u00adfe\u00adr\u00ean\u00adcias<\/strong><\/p>\n

1\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bj3l8N<\/a><\/p>\n

2 Ver Contas Na\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais Tri\u00admes\u00adtrais do IBGE:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bKzMDGj<\/a><\/p>\n

3 In\u00addi\u00adca\u00addores In\u00addus\u00adtriais, CNI:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200b1n986u<\/a><\/p>\n

4 Ver Cartas de Con\u00adjun\u00adtura do IPEA sobre in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o. Mar\u00e7o de 2015 (https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bc5SWN4<\/a>); junho de 2015 (https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bdUKphM<\/a>); se\u00adtembro de 2015 (https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bCu7YLQ<\/a>) e de\u00adzembro de 2015 (https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200b2HmTTw<\/a>).<\/p>\n

5 Carta de Con\u00adjun\u00adtura, In\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o, IPEA, junho de 2015, pg. 3:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bdUKphM<\/a><\/p>\n

6 Re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio De\u00adsem\u00adpenho dos Bancos, DI\u00adEESE:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bvb6UKm<\/a><\/p>\n

7 Ver Re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio Mensal da D\u00ed\u00advida, Te\u00adsouro Na\u00adci\u00adonal, de ou\u00adtubro de 2017:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bAZbFQ7<\/a><\/p>\n

8 Re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio Anual da D\u00ed\u00advida 2015, pg. 35 (https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200buAheAu<\/a>); RAD 2016, pg. 27; Re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio Mensal da D\u00ed\u00advida, ou\u00adtubro de 2017, pg.12.<\/p>\n

9 Ver os re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrios de Po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica Fiscal do Banco Cen\u00adtral:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bmPKaUm\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

10 Ata do COPOM de 10 e 11 de ja\u00adneiro de 2017:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bfgyq8r<\/a><\/p>\n

*Para con\u00adsultar as taxas de juros co\u00adbradas pelos bancos em atu\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o no pa\u00eds, clique aqui:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200beaaHjT<\/a><\/p>\n

**N\u00e3o con\u00adfundir com a car\u00adteira de t\u00ed\u00adtulos do Banco Cen\u00adtral men\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnada an\u00adte\u00adri\u00ador\u00admente.<\/p>\n

Os dados para con\u00adfec\u00e7\u00e3o do gr\u00e1\u00adfico foram ob\u00adtidos em:<\/p>\n

– Taxa de de\u00adso\u00adcu\u00adpa\u00e7\u00e3o. Re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio PNAD 3\u00b0 tri. de 2017:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200b3mbcjc<\/a>\u00a0(pg. 29)<\/p>\n

– Va\u00adri\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o da in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o acu\u00admu\u00adlada em 12 meses. Re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio INPC-IPCA out. 2017:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200bVq7zAw<\/a>\u00a0(pg. 15)<\/p>\n

– Taxa SELiC:\u00a0https:\/\/\u200bgoo.\u200bgl\/\u200btE3MgB\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.correiocidadania.com.br\/2-uncategorised\/12992-a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f4mica da Maioria –\u00a0Em sua reu\u00adni\u00e3o de 07\/12\/2017, o Con\u00adselho de Po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica Mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria (COPOM) de\u00adcidiu baixar a taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica de juros (SELiC) para o seu menor pa\u00adtamar his\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrico, 7% ao ano (1). O “mer\u00adcado” co\u00adme\u00admora o feito, como se agora fi\u00adnal\u00admente o Banco Cen\u00adtral es\u00adti\u00advesse le\u00advando adi\u00adante uma po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica mais ami\u00adg\u00e1vel. Mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6576,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[58],"class_list":["post-6575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-financeirizacao"],"yoast_head":"\nA taxa b\u00e1sica de juros est\u00e1 mesmo caindo?! - Controversia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2017\/12\/29\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A taxa b\u00e1sica de juros est\u00e1 mesmo caindo?! - Controversia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pol\u00edtica Econ\u00f4mica da Maioria –\u00a0Em sua reu\u00adni\u00e3o de 07\/12\/2017, o Con\u00adselho de Po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica Mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1ria (COPOM) de\u00adcidiu baixar a taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica de juros (SELiC) para o seu menor pa\u00adtamar his\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrico, 7% ao ano (1). O “mer\u00adcado” co\u00adme\u00admora o feito, como se agora fi\u00adnal\u00admente o Banco Cen\u00adtral es\u00adti\u00advesse le\u00advando adi\u00adante uma po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica mais ami\u00adg\u00e1vel. Mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2017\/12\/29\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Controversia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Controversiascontemporaneas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Controversiascontemporaneas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2017-12-29T13:30:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/selic-juros-economia.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"675\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"380\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ricardo Alvarez\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@https:\/\/twitter.com\/contro_versia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@contro_versia\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ricardo Alvarez\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tempo estimado de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"18 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/2017\\\/12\\\/29\\\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/2017\\\/12\\\/29\\\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ricardo Alvarez\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/890416adf48f0d52618900e97e15edf2\"},\"headline\":\"A taxa b\u00e1sica de juros est\u00e1 mesmo caindo?!\",\"datePublished\":\"2017-12-29T13:30:29+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/2017\\\/12\\\/29\\\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":3514,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/890416adf48f0d52618900e97e15edf2\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/2017\\\/12\\\/29\\\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2017\\\/12\\\/selic-juros-economia.jpg?fit=675%2C380&ssl=1\",\"keywords\":[\"Financeiriza\u00e7\u00e3o\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economia\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt-PT\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/2017\\\/12\\\/29\\\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/2017\\\/12\\\/29\\\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/controversia.com.br\\\/2017\\\/12\\\/29\\\/a-taxa-basica-de-juros-esta-mesmo-caindo\\\/\",\"name\":\"A taxa b\u00e1sica de juros est\u00e1 mesmo caindo?! 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