{"id":5720,"date":"2017-10-21T15:17:16","date_gmt":"2017-10-21T17:17:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/controversia.com.br\/?p=5720"},"modified":"2017-10-17T15:18:52","modified_gmt":"2017-10-17T17:18:52","slug":"guerra-da-siria-parece-definida","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2017\/10\/21\/guerra-da-siria-parece-definida\/","title":{"rendered":"Guerra da S\u00edria parece definida"},"content":{"rendered":"

Luiz E\u00e7a<\/strong> – Para Staffan de Mis\u00adtura, me\u00addi\u00adador da ONU na S\u00edria, Assad j\u00e1 ga\u00adnhou a guerra.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 o que se con\u00adclui desta re\u00adcente de\u00adcla\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o do di\u00adplo\u00admata ita\u00adliano: \u201cpara a opo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o, a men\u00adsagem \u00e9 clara: se eles est\u00e3o pla\u00adne\u00adjando vencer a guerra, os fatos est\u00e3o pro\u00advando que n\u00e3o \u00e9 esse o caso. Por\u00adtanto, \u00e9 tempo de a paz vencer (The Times of Is\u00adrael, 6 de se\u00adtembro de 2017)\u201d.<\/p>\n

E os fatos pa\u00adrecem con\u00adfirmar a opi\u00adni\u00e3o de Mis\u00adtura. A partir do ano pas\u00adsado, as for\u00e7as do go\u00adverno de Da\u00admasco t\u00eam acu\u00admu\u00adlado vi\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrias.<\/p>\n

A to\u00admada de Aleppo foi um marco, ex\u00adpulsou os re\u00adbeldes de sua maior con\u00adquista. E, re\u00adcen\u00adte\u00admente, com a queda de Deir al Zor para as tropas ofi\u00adciais, os fa\u00adn\u00e1\u00adticos do Es\u00adtado Is\u00adl\u00e2\u00admico (EI) per\u00adderam uma de suas prin\u00adci\u00adpais pra\u00e7as na S\u00edria.<\/p>\n

Hoje, as for\u00e7as de Assad j\u00e1 re\u00adto\u00admaram quase todas as mai\u00adores ci\u00addades do pa\u00eds, com ex\u00adce\u00e7\u00e3o de Idlib. E con\u00adtrolam a maior parte das re\u00adgi\u00f5es ha\u00adbi\u00adtadas do pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 a parte da S\u00edria sob grupos re\u00adbeldes (apoi\u00adados mi\u00adli\u00adtar\u00admente pelos EUA), \u00e9 pouco sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adtiva e tende a se re\u00adduzir ainda mais, mesmo le\u00advando em conta a con\u00adquista de Raqqa, ca\u00adpital do EI na S\u00edria.<\/p>\n

Sem um co\u00admando \u00fanico, pul\u00adve\u00adri\u00adzado entre 44 fac\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es, re\u00adbeldes pr\u00f3-de\u00admo\u00adcracia e jiha\u00addistas t\u00eam de lidar com graves con\u00adflitos in\u00adternos.<\/p>\n

A Frente Al-Nusra, ex-fi\u00adlial da Al-Qaeda na S\u00edria, e maior grupo jiha\u00addista na frente anti-Assad, est\u00e1 em guerra com grupos da opo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o, di\u00adgamos, bem com\u00adpor\u00adtada, na pro\u00adv\u00edncia de Idlib, tendo j\u00e1 do\u00admi\u00adnado to\u00adtal\u00admente a ca\u00adpital.<\/p>\n

No nor\u00addeste, os curdos do YPG (ar\u00admados pelos EUA e apoi\u00adados por bom\u00adbar\u00addeios yan\u00adkees) t\u00eam for\u00admado no ex\u00e9r\u00adcito da FSA (pa\u00adtro\u00adci\u00adnada pela Ar\u00e1bia Sau\u00addita, EUA e Qatar) na guerra ao EI. Por en\u00adquanto, eles guer\u00adreiam ex\u00adclu\u00adsi\u00adva\u00admente os b\u00e1r\u00adbaros fa\u00adn\u00e1\u00adticos.<\/p>\n

De\u00adpois da de\u00adbacle total do Es\u00adtado Is\u00adl\u00e2\u00admico, que ora se de\u00adsenha como pr\u00f3\u00adxima, du\u00advida-se que esta par\u00adceria pros\u00adsiga na luta contra Assad, pois a\u00ed os ob\u00adje\u00adtivos dos seus com\u00adpo\u00adnentes s\u00e3o di\u00adfe\u00adrentes e at\u00e9 opostos, o que pode gerar com\u00adbates entre eles.<\/p>\n

A luta dos curdos \u00e9 pela in\u00adde\u00adpen\u00add\u00eancia da re\u00adgi\u00e3o onde pre\u00addo\u00admina a sua etnia. O que se choca com a opo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o, cujo alvo \u00e9 a des\u00adtrui\u00e7\u00e3o do re\u00adgime de Da\u00admasco e sua subs\u00adti\u00adtui\u00e7\u00e3o por um go\u00adverno \u201cde\u00admo\u00adcr\u00e1\u00adtico\u201d, no qual a S\u00edria man\u00adteria todo seu ter\u00adri\u00adt\u00f3rio de antes da guerra civil, in\u00adclu\u00adsive as re\u00adgi\u00f5es onde os curdos querem fundar um Es\u00adtado in\u00adde\u00adpen\u00addente.<\/p>\n

A Tur\u00adquia, at\u00e9 h\u00e1 pouco membro des\u00adta\u00adcado da co\u00ada\u00adliz\u00e3o anti-Assad, passou a con\u00adcen\u00adtrar seus ata\u00adques a\u00e9\u00adreos e ter\u00adres\u00adtres contra os curdos, te\u00admendo que a cri\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o de um Es\u00adtado deles na S\u00edria es\u00adti\u00admule a luta pela in\u00adde\u00adpen\u00add\u00eancia das \u00e1reas do ter\u00adri\u00adt\u00f3rio turco onde os curdos s\u00e3o mai\u00adoria. Sendo essas \u00e1reas con\u00adt\u00ed\u00adguas, o pro\u00adjeto seria junt\u00e1-las num s\u00f3 Es\u00adtado uni\u00adfi\u00adcado, com vistas na fu\u00adtura in\u00adte\u00adgra\u00e7\u00e3o das re\u00adgi\u00f5es curdas do Iraque e do Ir\u00e3, re\u00adfun\u00addando-se assim o Es\u00adtado do Cur\u00addist\u00e3o (que, ali\u00e1s, teve vida ef\u00ea\u00admera no pas\u00adsado).<\/p>\n

Se\u00adgundo o Al Mo\u00adnitor (3 de se\u00adtembro de 2017), os turcos j\u00e1 an\u00adte\u00adci\u00adparam o pos\u00ads\u00edvel con\u00adflito entre as for\u00e7as opo\u00adsi\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnistas s\u00ed\u00adrias e as curdas. A partir de julho \u00fal\u00adtimo, os dois grupos j\u00e1 trocam tiros de ar\u00adti\u00adlharia, por en\u00adquanto es\u00adpo\u00adr\u00e1\u00addicos, no norte da pro\u00adv\u00edncia de Idlib.<\/p>\n

Por esses mo\u00adtivos, mais os pro\u00adblemas \u00e9tico-mi\u00adli\u00adtares de es\u00adtarem ar\u00admando grupos ter\u00adro\u00adristas como a Nusra, v\u00e1\u00adrios pa\u00edses ali\u00adados da frente anti-Assad est\u00e3o se de\u00adsin\u00adte\u00adres\u00adsando por con\u00adti\u00adnuar par\u00adti\u00adci\u00adpando da guerra.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m da saia justa pro\u00advo\u00adcada pelo apoio pres\u00adtado a um grupo li\u00adgado \u00e0 Al-Qaeda, os EUA t\u00eam um outro mo\u00adtivo, ainda mais im\u00adpor\u00adtante: a de\u00adcis\u00e3o de con\u00adcen\u00adtrar suas for\u00e7as contra o EI.<\/p>\n

Ine\u00adga\u00advel\u00admente, o bando ra\u00addical is\u00adl\u00e2\u00admico \u00e9 um ini\u00admigo mais pe\u00adri\u00adgoso e muito pior do que Assad, que, ao con\u00adtr\u00e1rio do EI, n\u00e3o amea\u00e7a, nem nunca ame\u00ada\u00e7ou, a se\u00adgu\u00adran\u00e7a do povo norte-ame\u00adri\u00adcano e da Eu\u00adropa.<\/p>\n

Trump co\u00adme\u00e7ou a se afastar ao can\u00adcelar o pro\u00adgrama de ar\u00adma\u00admento di\u00adri\u00adgido pela CIA, que existe h\u00e1 mais de quatro anos. Isso pesou es\u00adpe\u00adci\u00adal\u00admente no equi\u00adl\u00ed\u00adbrio do front da pro\u00adv\u00edncia de Idlib. Ainda mais con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adrando o rom\u00adpi\u00admento total de Washington com a Nusra, que ori\u00adginou ata\u00adques desse grupo contra os antes ali\u00adados re\u00adbeldes, ali\u00adnhados com a co\u00ada\u00adliz\u00e3o in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal anti-Assad, li\u00adde\u00adrada pelos EUA.<\/p>\n

Em Idlib, a partir de agora sem armas es\u00adta\u00addu\u00adni\u00addenses e se des\u00adgas\u00adtando em lutas in\u00adternas, a causa da opo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o tem seus dias con\u00adtados na re\u00adgi\u00e3o, a \u00fal\u00adtima no oeste e no\u00adro\u00adeste do pa\u00eds sob seu co\u00admando. Res\u00adtar\u00e3o al\u00adgumas \u00e1reas es\u00adpa\u00adlhadas pela S\u00edria, das quais as lo\u00adca\u00adli\u00adzadas no nor\u00addeste e norte s\u00e3o as que lhes d\u00e3o mai\u00adores es\u00adpe\u00adran\u00e7as, j\u00e1 que \u00e9 ali que se de\u00adsen\u00advolve a luta contra o EI, com a par\u00adti\u00adci\u00adpa\u00e7\u00e3o dos curdos e da For\u00e7a A\u00e9rea norte-ame\u00adri\u00adcana.<\/p>\n

A hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adtese de que ap\u00f3s a des\u00adtrui\u00e7\u00e3o do Es\u00adtado Is\u00adl\u00e2\u00admico os EUA man\u00adte\u00adnham sua for\u00e7a a\u00e9rea, e au\u00admente suas tropas ter\u00adres\u00adtres (atu\u00adal\u00admente em pe\u00adqueno n\u00fa\u00admero) em a\u00e7\u00e3o contra o re\u00adgime Assad, pa\u00adrece du\u00advi\u00addosa. En\u00adquanto que o apoio russo \u2013 com bom\u00adbar\u00addeiros e armas \u2013, dos mi\u00adli\u00adci\u00adanos do Hiz\u00adbollah e dos grupos xi\u00aditas ira\u00adqui\u00adanos \u00e9 ga\u00adran\u00adtido.<\/p>\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o Ir\u00e3, que j\u00e1 com\u00adpa\u00adrece com quan\u00adti\u00addades subs\u00adtan\u00adciais de di\u00adnheiro e ar\u00adma\u00admentos e um n\u00fa\u00admero ra\u00adzo\u00e1vel de com\u00adba\u00adtentes, de\u00adver\u00e1 au\u00admentar sua con\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00e7\u00e3o, se ne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1rio, pois a vi\u00adt\u00f3ria de Assad \u00e9 do seu maior in\u00adte\u00adresse. O go\u00adverno de Teer\u00e3 pre\u00adcisa con\u00adti\u00adnuar com a S\u00edria a seu lado, pois \u00e9 seu maior su\u00adporte no Ori\u00adente M\u00e9dio. E cer\u00adta\u00admente, pelo muito que ajudou Assad, o Ir\u00e3 po\u00adder\u00e1 ga\u00adnhar\u00e1 in\u00adflu\u00eancia ca\u00adpital no go\u00adverno de Da\u00admasco.<\/p>\n

Mesmo di\u00adante deste pa\u00adno\u00adrama car\u00adre\u00adgado de nu\u00advens\u00a0nimbus<\/em>, os l\u00ed\u00adderes dos blocos opo\u00adsi\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnistas blo\u00adqueiam o in\u00edcio de ne\u00adgo\u00adci\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o de paz, exi\u00adgindo a sa\u00edda de Assad. Ora, isso \u00e9 vi\u00adajar na mai\u00ado\u00adnese, num ce\u00adn\u00e1rio em que as for\u00e7as do chefe s\u00edrio est\u00e3o em plena ofen\u00adsiva, ga\u00adnhando ter\u00adreno sem parar contra seus ini\u00admigos.<\/p>\n

Vendo a vi\u00adt\u00f3ria pin\u00adtando cada vez mais como certa, Assad tende a n\u00e3o se in\u00adte\u00adressar num acordo de paz com a opo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o, a n\u00e3o ser com con\u00adces\u00ads\u00f5es m\u00ed\u00adnimas.<\/p>\n

Por\u00adtanto, sendo re\u00ada\u00adlista, a pr\u00e9-exi\u00adg\u00eancia de de\u00adgola de Assad (em termos sim\u00adb\u00f3\u00adlicos) teria de ser des\u00adcar\u00adtada.<\/p>\n

As ou\u00adtras pos\u00adsi\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addades \u2013 Assad ficar no trono apenas na tran\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o e n\u00e3o poder se can\u00addi\u00addatar nas elei\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es que vi\u00aderem \u2013 re\u00fanem mais chances de serem aceitas.<\/p>\n

Para con\u00advencer os EUA e a Ar\u00e1bia Sau\u00addita a con\u00adven\u00adcerem os re\u00adbeldes de que devem topar uma destas duas ideias, a R\u00fassia conta com um po\u00adde\u00adroso ar\u00adgu\u00admento. Mas, antes de enunci\u00e1-lo, vamos por partes.<\/p>\n

O Ir\u00e3 \u00e9 quem mais con\u00adtri\u00adbuiu para o su\u00adcesso do go\u00adverno s\u00edrio. Di\u00adre\u00adta\u00admente, com ar\u00adma\u00admentos, sol\u00addados e di\u00adnheiro. In\u00addi\u00adre\u00adta\u00admente, atrav\u00e9s das armas e su\u00adpri\u00admento que ga\u00adrantem as a\u00e7\u00f5es b\u00e9\u00adlicas dos guer\u00adreiros do Hiz\u00adbollah e das mi\u00adl\u00ed\u00adcias xi\u00aditas ira\u00adqui\u00adanas.<\/p>\n

N\u00e3o ha\u00advendo acordo, a guerra con\u00adti\u00adnuar\u00e1 e os cr\u00e9\u00additos ira\u00adni\u00adanos com Da\u00admasco t\u00eam tudo para con\u00adti\u00adnuar cres\u00adcendo num ritmo veloz.<\/p>\n

Visto isso, che\u00adgamos ao ar\u00adgu\u00admento com que Putin po\u00adder\u00e1 mo\u00adderar o or\u00adgulho de um Assad ven\u00adcedor: como \u00e9 pro\u00adv\u00e1vel que Assad acabe ven\u00adcendo, o Ir\u00e3 ser\u00e1 o maior res\u00adpon\u00ads\u00e1vel pela vi\u00adt\u00f3ria. Ter\u00e1 voz forte em Da\u00admasco, que ten\u00adder\u00e1 a apoiar as fu\u00adturas ini\u00adci\u00ada\u00adtivas e po\u00adsi\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es de Teer\u00e3.<\/p>\n

Ora, o Ir\u00e1 \u00e9 o maior ini\u00admigo dos EUA no Ori\u00adente M\u00e9dio e o grande rival da Ar\u00e1bia Sau\u00addita na luta pela he\u00adge\u00admonia nessa re\u00adgi\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Ser\u00e1 que va\u00adler\u00e1 a pena acetar a pro\u00adba\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade de um Ir\u00e3 vi\u00adta\u00admi\u00adnado, com a au\u00adr\u00e9ola de ter ven\u00adcido o Oci\u00addente e o mais rico pa\u00eds do mundo is\u00adl\u00e2\u00admico?<\/p>\n

Me\u00adlhor en\u00adgolir Assad do que ficar en\u00adgas\u00adgado com um Ir\u00e3 po\u00adde\u00adroso e vi\u00adto\u00adrioso em todo o Ori\u00adente M\u00e9dio.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.correiocidadania.com.br\/2-uncategorised\/12821-guerra-da-siria-parece-definida<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Luiz E\u00e7a – Para Staffan de Mis\u00adtura, me\u00addi\u00adador da ONU na S\u00edria, Assad j\u00e1 ga\u00adnhou a guerra. \u00c9 o que se con\u00adclui desta re\u00adcente de\u00adcla\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o do di\u00adplo\u00admata ita\u00adliano: \u201cpara a opo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o, a men\u00adsagem \u00e9 clara: se eles est\u00e3o pla\u00adne\u00adjando vencer a guerra, os fatos est\u00e3o pro\u00advando que n\u00e3o \u00e9 esse o caso. Por\u00adtanto, \u00e9 tempo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5721,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,2],"tags":[56,71],"class_list":["post-5720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-internacional","category-politica","tag-conflito","tag-geopolitica"],"yoast_head":"\nGuerra da S\u00edria parece definida - Controversia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2017\/10\/21\/guerra-da-siria-parece-definida\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Guerra da S\u00edria parece definida - Controversia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Luiz E\u00e7a – Para Staffan de Mis\u00adtura, me\u00addi\u00adador da ONU na S\u00edria, Assad j\u00e1 ga\u00adnhou a guerra. \u00c9 o que se con\u00adclui desta re\u00adcente de\u00adcla\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o do di\u00adplo\u00admata ita\u00adliano: \u201cpara a opo\u00adsi\u00e7\u00e3o, a men\u00adsagem \u00e9 clara: se eles est\u00e3o pla\u00adne\u00adjando vencer a guerra, os fatos est\u00e3o pro\u00advando que n\u00e3o \u00e9 esse o caso. 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