{"id":3060,"date":"2017-02-15T09:03:01","date_gmt":"2017-02-15T11:03:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/controversia.com.br\/?p=3060"},"modified":"2017-02-13T19:04:50","modified_gmt":"2017-02-13T21:04:50","slug":"economia-regressao-em-marcha-forcada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2017\/02\/15\/economia-regressao-em-marcha-forcada\/","title":{"rendered":"Economia: regress\u00e3o em marcha for\u00e7ada"},"content":{"rendered":"

Paulo Passarinho<\/strong> –\u00a02016 \u00e9 um ano que en\u00adtrar\u00e1 para a nossa his\u00adt\u00f3ria como o marco do fra\u00adcasso da po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica de con\u00adci\u00adli\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o de classes pa\u00adtro\u00adci\u00adnada pelo lu\u00adlismo. Po\u00adder\u00e1 ser in\u00adter\u00adpre\u00adtado tamb\u00e9m como o ano em que, mais uma vez, os se\u00adtores do\u00admi\u00adnantes da bur\u00adguesia d\u00e3o mos\u00adtras de sua des\u00adcren\u00e7a e in\u00adto\u00adle\u00adr\u00e2ncia a qual\u00adquer ten\u00adta\u00adtiva de mu\u00addan\u00e7a, por mais branda que seja, do pa\u00addr\u00e3o vi\u00adgente de ex\u00adplo\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o do tra\u00adbalho e da in\u00adser\u00e7\u00e3o su\u00adbor\u00addi\u00adnada do pa\u00eds, no con\u00adtexto da glo\u00adba\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o fi\u00adnan\u00adceira.<\/p>\n

As pro\u00admessas do in\u00edcio do ano que se en\u00adcerra, feitas por Nelson Bar\u00adbosa ao subs\u00adti\u00adtuir Jo\u00ada\u00adquim Levy no Mi\u00adnis\u00adt\u00e9rio da Fa\u00adzenda, de pouco va\u00adleram. As de\u00adcla\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es de com\u00adpro\u00admisso com as po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adticas de rigor fiscal, con\u00adces\u00ads\u00f5es p\u00fa\u00adblicas, mu\u00addan\u00e7as nas re\u00adgras pre\u00advi\u00adden\u00adci\u00e1\u00adrias e tra\u00adba\u00adlhistas, entre ou\u00adtras me\u00addidas exi\u00adgidas pelos bancos e mul\u00adti\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais \u2013 os ver\u00adda\u00addeiros pro\u00adta\u00adgo\u00adnistas do mo\u00addelo li\u00adberal bra\u00adsi\u00adleiro -, de nada va\u00adleram e o pro\u00adcesso de im\u00adpe\u00ada\u00adch\u00adment de Dilma Rous\u00adseff acabou se con\u00adsu\u00admando.<\/p>\n

O im\u00adpe\u00ada\u00adch\u00adment de Dilma foi, no plano da po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica, o rom\u00adpi\u00admento formal dos se\u00adtores do\u00admi\u00adnantes com a ten\u00adta\u00adtiva de con\u00adti\u00adnui\u00addade do pacto so\u00adcial lu\u00adlista, em torno do mo\u00addelo li\u00adberal. No plano econ\u00f4\u00admico, a ma\u00adnobra par\u00adla\u00admentar que cul\u00adminou no afas\u00adta\u00admento de\u00adfi\u00adni\u00adtivo de Dilma teve o ob\u00adje\u00adtivo de ace\u00adlerar as mu\u00addan\u00e7as ins\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais que visam con\u00adtrolar ainda mais o or\u00ad\u00e7a\u00admento p\u00fa\u00adblico em prol dos in\u00adte\u00adresses do setor fi\u00adnan\u00adceiro, re\u00adduzir os custos do tra\u00adbalho e abrir novas opor\u00adtu\u00adni\u00addades de ne\u00adg\u00f3\u00adcios aos car\u00adt\u00e9is – nas \u00e1reas do pr\u00e9-sal, da pre\u00advi\u00add\u00eancia pri\u00advada e das con\u00adces\u00ads\u00f5es de ser\u00advi\u00e7os p\u00fa\u00adblicos e pri\u00adva\u00adti\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es de seg\u00admentos de em\u00adpresas es\u00adta\u00adtais, es\u00adpe\u00adci\u00adal\u00admente em re\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 ca\u00addeia pro\u00addu\u00adtiva da Pe\u00adtro\u00adbr\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

En\u00adtre\u00adtanto, as duas va\u00adri\u00e1\u00adveis que j\u00e1 em 2015 de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adnavam as in\u00adcer\u00adtezas e riscos con\u00adjun\u00adtu\u00adrais im\u00adpre\u00advi\u00ads\u00ed\u00adveis con\u00adti\u00adnu\u00adaram a do\u00adminar a cena: os des\u00addo\u00adbra\u00admentos da crise econ\u00f4\u00admica e das ope\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es an\u00adti\u00adcor\u00adrup\u00e7\u00e3o, tendo \u00e0 frente a Lava Jato.<\/p>\n

Na eco\u00adnomia, a re\u00adcess\u00e3o pro\u00admo\u00advida pelo ajuste ini\u00adciado por Dilma e Jo\u00ada\u00adquim Levy, em 2014, re\u00adsultou uma queda de 3,8% no PIB, em 2015, e teve con\u00adti\u00adnui\u00addade em 2016, que de\u00adver\u00e1 no\u00adva\u00admente re\u00adsultar uma re\u00adtra\u00e7\u00e3o em torno de 3,5% do pro\u00adduto. Com isso, a taxa aberta de de\u00adsem\u00adprego \u2013 que n\u00e3o leva em conta os su\u00adbem\u00adpre\u00adgados ou os tra\u00adba\u00adlha\u00addores em de\u00adsa\u00adlento \u2013 se apro\u00adxima dos 12% da po\u00adpu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o eco\u00adno\u00admi\u00adca\u00admente ativa, a massa de sa\u00adl\u00e1\u00adrios apre\u00adsenta di\u00admi\u00adnui\u00e7\u00e3o, junto com o ren\u00addi\u00admento m\u00e9dio dos tra\u00adba\u00adlha\u00addores, e o \u00fal\u00adtimo dado sobre a oci\u00ado\u00adsi\u00addade da in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria aponta um n\u00edvel m\u00e9dio de uti\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o do parque in\u00addus\u00adtrial de apenas 73%. Tudo isso em meio a um forte en\u00addi\u00advi\u00adda\u00admento das fa\u00adm\u00ed\u00adlias e das em\u00adpresas n\u00e3o fi\u00adnan\u00adceiras, o que es\u00adta\u00adbe\u00adlece um ho\u00adri\u00adzonte mais que som\u00adbrio para o fu\u00adturo pr\u00f3\u00adximo.<\/p>\n

Por\u00e9m, o re\u00adflexo mais im\u00adpor\u00adtante das ir\u00adres\u00adpon\u00ads\u00e1\u00adveis me\u00addidas as\u00adsu\u00admidas em nome do \u201crigor fiscal\u201d foi jus\u00adta\u00admente uma forte crise na ar\u00adre\u00adca\u00adda\u00e7\u00e3o da Uni\u00e3o e dos es\u00adtados.<\/p>\n

Pa\u00adra\u00addo\u00adxal\u00admente, mas ab\u00adso\u00adlu\u00adta\u00admente pre\u00advi\u00ads\u00edvel, a te\u00adrapia or\u00adto\u00addoxa – com\u00adbi\u00adnando cortes or\u00ad\u00e7a\u00admen\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrios e ele\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica de juros, em meio \u00e0 es\u00adtag\u00adna\u00e7\u00e3o econ\u00f4\u00admica de 2014 – acabou por agravar a pr\u00f3\u00adpria si\u00adtu\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o fiscal e pro\u00adduziu uma crise fi\u00adnan\u00adceira sem pre\u00adce\u00addentes, es\u00adpe\u00adci\u00adal\u00admente no plano das ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es es\u00adta\u00adduais.<\/p>\n

Im\u00adpor\u00adtantes uni\u00addades da Fe\u00adde\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o, como s\u00e3o os es\u00adtados do Rio de Ja\u00adneiro, Rio Grande do Sul e Minas Ge\u00adrais, de\u00adcre\u00adtaram es\u00adtado de ca\u00adla\u00admi\u00addade fi\u00adnan\u00adceira e, fora de uma so\u00adlu\u00e7\u00e3o que im\u00adplique uma in\u00adje\u00e7\u00e3o di\u00adreta de re\u00adcursos da Uni\u00e3o \u2013 o que at\u00e9 agora n\u00e3o pa\u00adrece o mais pro\u00adv\u00e1vel \u2013, a si\u00adtu\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o apenas ten\u00adder\u00e1 a se agravar, in\u00adclu\u00adsive se ge\u00adne\u00adra\u00adli\u00adzando para ou\u00adtros es\u00adtados.<\/p>\n

A efe\u00adti\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o do vice de Dilma \u2013 Mi\u00adchael Temer \u2013 como pre\u00adsi\u00addente con\u00adso\u00adlidou uma nova ali\u00adan\u00e7a par\u00adti\u00add\u00e1ria no co\u00admando po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtico da es\u00adfera fe\u00adderal, en\u00advol\u00advendo o poder Exe\u00adcu\u00adtivo e o Le\u00adgis\u00adla\u00adtivo, sob a ba\u00adtuta do PMDB e do PSDB, e vi\u00ada\u00adbi\u00adlizou, assim, o ca\u00adminho para a apro\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o \u2013 dentro do Con\u00adgresso \u2013 de graves al\u00adte\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es le\u00adgais que, na pr\u00e1\u00adtica, se\u00adpultam os prin\u00adc\u00ed\u00adpios e di\u00adre\u00adtrizes con\u00adsig\u00adnados na Cons\u00adti\u00adtui\u00e7\u00e3o de 1988.<\/p>\n

A prin\u00adcipal dessas al\u00adte\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es se re\u00adfere \u00e0 emenda cons\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adci\u00adonal que con\u00adgela por 20 anos as des\u00adpesas n\u00e3o fi\u00adnan\u00adceiras da Uni\u00e3o. Apre\u00adsen\u00adtada \u00e0 opi\u00adni\u00e3o p\u00fa\u00adblica como uma me\u00addida ne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1ria para o \u201cli\u00admite dos gastos p\u00fa\u00adblicos\u201d, a emenda n\u00e3o de\u00adfine ne\u00adnhum tipo de con\u00adtrole para o prin\u00adcipal fator de de\u00adse\u00adqui\u00adl\u00ed\u00adbrio das contas p\u00fa\u00adblicas, que \u00e9 o re\u00adfe\u00adrente ao pa\u00adga\u00admento dos juros, de\u00adcor\u00adrentes do pa\u00addr\u00e3o de ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00e7\u00e3o da d\u00ed\u00advida p\u00fa\u00adblica. Ao con\u00adtr\u00e1rio, o sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adcado fiscal da emenda apro\u00advada \u00e9 a con\u00adten\u00e7\u00e3o da ex\u00adpans\u00e3o real das des\u00adpesas de cus\u00adteio e in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admento da Uni\u00e3o, para uma maior fle\u00adxi\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade or\u00ad\u00e7a\u00admen\u00adt\u00e1ria \u2013 e ex\u00adpans\u00e3o! \u2013 das des\u00adpesas fi\u00adnan\u00adceiras com juros, o motor con\u00adt\u00ednuo de acu\u00admu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o de lu\u00adcros pelos se\u00adtores ren\u00adtistas.<\/p>\n

Junto com a emenda j\u00e1 apro\u00advada de con\u00adge\u00adla\u00admento das des\u00adpesas n\u00e3o fi\u00adnan\u00adceiras da Uni\u00e3o, outro golpe fatal na Cons\u00adti\u00adtui\u00e7\u00e3o ainda vi\u00adgente \u00e9 a ten\u00adta\u00adtiva de apro\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o de um novo con\u00adjunto de re\u00adgras para o acesso \u00e0 pre\u00advi\u00add\u00eancia so\u00adcial p\u00fa\u00adblica. Na pr\u00e1\u00adtica, essas novas re\u00adgras ob\u00adje\u00adtivam dar um tiro de mi\u00adse\u00adri\u00adc\u00f3rdia no ins\u00adti\u00adtuto das apo\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addo\u00adrias e pen\u00ads\u00f5es vol\u00adtadas para a po\u00adpu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o pobre e, ao mesmo tempo, ca\u00adna\u00adlizar a pou\u00adpan\u00e7a pre\u00advi\u00adden\u00adci\u00e1ria dos se\u00adtores de m\u00e9dia e alta re\u00admu\u00adne\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o para os planos de pre\u00advi\u00add\u00eancia pri\u00advada.<\/p>\n

Por essas novas re\u00adgras, o tra\u00adba\u00adlhador so\u00admente teria o di\u00adreito de re\u00adquerer a sua apo\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addoria ap\u00f3s a com\u00adpro\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o de 25 anos, no m\u00ed\u00adnimo, de con\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es, e tendo uma idade m\u00ed\u00adnima de 65 anos, sem dis\u00adtin\u00e7\u00e3o para ho\u00admens ou mu\u00adlheres.<\/p>\n

Sa\u00adbi\u00adda\u00admente, essa ser\u00e1 uma regra de di\u00adf\u00edcil cum\u00adpri\u00admento por parte da es\u00adma\u00adga\u00addora massa de tra\u00adba\u00adlha\u00addores, sub\u00adme\u00adtida \u00e0s pre\u00adca\u00adri\u00ade\u00addades do mer\u00adcado de tra\u00adbalho do pa\u00eds. A ro\u00adta\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade dos postos de tra\u00adbalho, o n\u00e3o re\u00adco\u00adlhi\u00admento das con\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es pre\u00advi\u00adden\u00adci\u00e1\u00adrias pelas em\u00adpresas, a in\u00adfor\u00adma\u00adli\u00addade e a re\u00addu\u00adzida m\u00e9dia de re\u00admu\u00adne\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es s\u00e3o fa\u00adtores que, nos dias de hoje, j\u00e1 di\u00adfi\u00adcultam em muito a cha\u00admada apo\u00adsen\u00adta\u00addoria por tempo de ser\u00advi\u00e7o. Com a ado\u00e7\u00e3o da cha\u00admada idade m\u00ed\u00adnima e o au\u00admento do tempo m\u00ed\u00adnimo de con\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00e7\u00e3o de 15 para 25 anos ser\u00e1 ex\u00adtre\u00adma\u00admente di\u00adf\u00edcil um tra\u00adba\u00adlhador de baixa qua\u00adli\u00adfi\u00adca\u00e7\u00e3o e re\u00admu\u00adne\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o re\u00addu\u00adzida pre\u00aden\u00adcher os novos re\u00adqui\u00adsitos que a con\u00adtrar\u00adre\u00adforma pre\u00advi\u00adden\u00adci\u00e1ria tenta impor.<\/p>\n

O que de fato po\u00adten\u00adci\u00adal\u00admente di\u00adfi\u00adculta a ofen\u00adsiva pri\u00adva\u00adtista e de fra\u00adgi\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o dos di\u00adreitos so\u00adciais da po\u00adpu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 o com\u00adpro\u00adme\u00adti\u00admento de pra\u00adti\u00adca\u00admente todo o uni\u00adverso do mundo po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtico formal com os es\u00adquemas de cor\u00adrup\u00e7\u00e3o re\u00adve\u00adlados pelas ope\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es an\u00adti\u00adcor\u00adrup\u00e7\u00e3o, no\u00adto\u00adri\u00ada\u00admente a Lava Jato.<\/p>\n

As de\u00adn\u00fan\u00adcias re\u00adve\u00adladas at\u00e9 agora, de forma se\u00adle\u00adtiva, a partir das cha\u00admadas de\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es pre\u00admi\u00adadas, s\u00e3o es\u00adpan\u00adtosas. Re\u00advelam a re\u00ada\u00adli\u00addade das re\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es do mundo dos ne\u00adg\u00f3\u00adcios \u2013 na ver\u00addade, o mundo dos car\u00adt\u00e9is \u2013 com o mundo do\u00admi\u00adnante da po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica ins\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adci\u00adonal.<\/p>\n

Com\u00adpro\u00admetem a ideia da \u201cre\u00adpre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o po\u00adpular\u201d a partir dos man\u00addatos par\u00adla\u00admen\u00adtares ou exe\u00adcu\u00adtivos. Co\u00adlocam a nu uma ver\u00addade oculta e que n\u00e3o deve ja\u00admais vir \u00e0 luz: no ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlismo real, todos os ne\u00adg\u00f3\u00adcios re\u00adle\u00advantes das cor\u00adpo\u00adra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es em\u00adpre\u00adsa\u00adriais do\u00admi\u00adnantes passam pelo Es\u00adtado, pelo seu con\u00adtrole e pelo do\u00adm\u00ednio das suas a\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

Pra com\u00adpletar, o pa\u00eds as\u00adsistiu a es\u00adquerda so\u00adfrer a sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adtiva der\u00adrota do im\u00adpe\u00ada\u00adch\u00adment de Dilma, a des\u00admo\u00adra\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o e der\u00adrota do PT e de seus ali\u00adados, al\u00e9m do re\u00adtro\u00adcesso do res\u00adta\u00adbe\u00adle\u00adci\u00admento da ali\u00adan\u00e7a par\u00adla\u00admentar dos par\u00adtidos da di\u00adreita, fora as re\u00adve\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es da Lava Jato, que co\u00adlo\u00adcaram um ponto de in\u00adter\u00adro\u00adga\u00e7\u00e3o na pos\u00adsi\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade da ampla ofen\u00adsiva da di\u00adreita vir a ser vi\u00adto\u00adriosa.<\/p>\n

En\u00advol\u00advendo toda a c\u00fa\u00adpula do ques\u00adti\u00ado\u00adn\u00e1vel go\u00adverno de Temer e dos par\u00adtidos que o apoiam, os des\u00addo\u00adbra\u00admentos das in\u00adves\u00adti\u00adga\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es e dos pro\u00adcessos cri\u00admi\u00adnais j\u00e1 em curso s\u00e3o im\u00adpre\u00advi\u00ads\u00ed\u00adveis, em es\u00adpe\u00adcial ap\u00f3s a t\u00e9\u00adtrica morte de Teori Za\u00advascki. Junto com os des\u00addo\u00adbra\u00admentos da crise fi\u00adnan\u00adceira dos es\u00adtados e con\u00adse\u00adquen\u00adte\u00admente com a crise so\u00adcial que se am\u00adplia, 2016 deixa no ar muito mais in\u00adcer\u00adtezas do que a pos\u00adsi\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade de se an\u00adtever o que po\u00adder\u00e1 re\u00adsultar esse com\u00adplexo quadro que so\u00adbrep\u00f5e crises graves de di\u00adfe\u00adrentes di\u00admen\u00ads\u00f5es.<\/p>\n

O que de ma\u00adneira muito evi\u00addente po\u00addemos re\u00adgis\u00adtrar \u00e9 que 2016 nos marca como um ano de gra\u00adv\u00eds\u00adsimos re\u00adtro\u00adcessos. Re\u00adtro\u00adcessos que in\u00adcre\u00admentam de forma aguda os con\u00adflitos de uma na\u00e7\u00e3o que \u2013 pre\u00adci\u00adsando en\u00adcon\u00adtrar o seu rumo ou a sua iden\u00adti\u00addade \u2013 ainda pa\u00addece da mi\u00adopia da di\u00adta\u00addura dos que veem a de\u00adsi\u00adgual\u00addade e os pri\u00advi\u00adl\u00e9\u00adgios de classe como va\u00adlores ina\u00adli\u00ade\u00adn\u00e1\u00adveis.<\/p>\n

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Paulo Passarinho –\u00a02016 \u00e9 um ano que en\u00adtrar\u00e1 para a nossa his\u00adt\u00f3ria como o marco do fra\u00adcasso da po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica de con\u00adci\u00adli\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o de classes pa\u00adtro\u00adci\u00adnada pelo lu\u00adlismo. 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