{"id":24770,"date":"2025-07-16T12:41:53","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T15:41:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/?p=24770"},"modified":"2025-07-15T17:43:34","modified_gmt":"2025-07-15T20:43:34","slug":"as-evidencias-da-erosao-do-dolar-segundo-o-jp-morgan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2025\/07\/16\/as-evidencias-da-erosao-do-dolar-segundo-o-jp-morgan\/","title":{"rendered":"As evid\u00eancias da \u2018eros\u00e3o\u2019 do d\u00f3lar, segundo o JP Morgan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Giuliano Guandalini<\/strong> – Os sinais de \u2018desdolariza\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019 da economia mundial v\u00e3o se avolumando, especialmente nas reservas dos bancos centrais e nos contratos de commodities, mostra um relat\u00f3rio do JP Morgan.<\/p>\n

O percentual do d\u00f3lar nas reservas dos principais bancos centrais do mundo caiu ao menor valor em 20 anos, e a moeda americana vem perdendo espa\u00e7o como refer\u00eancia nos mercados de commodities, especialmente no setor de energia.<\/p>\n

Gra\u00e7as \u00e0s san\u00e7\u00f5es, a R\u00fassia est\u00e1 usando moedas locais para as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de petr\u00f3leo e derivados. Entre os principais compradores est\u00e3o \u00cdndia, China e Turquia.<\/p>\n

Segundo o JP Morgan, firmas indianas est\u00e3o fazendo neg\u00f3cios com empresas russas e liquidando os contratos em iuan, a moeda chinesa.<\/p>\n

\u201cA tend\u00eancia da \u2018desdolariza\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019 no com\u00e9rcio de commodities \u00e9 uma vantagem para pa\u00edses como \u00cdndia, China, Brasil, Tail\u00e2ndia e Indon\u00e9sia, que n\u00e3o apenas podem comprar petr\u00f3leo com desconto como tamb\u00e9m efetuar o pagamento em suas pr\u00f3prias moedas,\u201d disse a head global de estrat\u00e9gia de commodities do banco, Natasha Kaneva.<\/p>\n

Kaneva nota que isso reduz a necessidade desses pa\u00edses manterem reservas em d\u00f3lar e em t\u00edtulos americanos, \u201co que pode liberar capital para ser empregado em outros projetos dom\u00e9sticos.\u201d<\/p>\n

De acordo com o\u00a0relat\u00f3rio<\/a><\/strong>, outra grande tend\u00eancia dessa \u2018desdolariza\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019 \u00e9 o aumento da demanda por ouro; China, R\u00fassia e Turquia foram os maiores compradores do metal na \u00faltima d\u00e9cada.<\/p>\n

A aloca\u00e7\u00e3o das reservas dos emergentes em ouro mais que dobrou nesse per\u00edodo, de 4% para 9%.<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 as posi\u00e7\u00f5es estrangeiras em t\u00edtulos americanos v\u00eam sendo reduzidas h\u00e1 15 anos. Antes da grande crise financeira internacional, mais de 50% dos Treasuries estavam na m\u00e3o de compradores de fora dos EUA; agora, o percentual caiu para 30%.<\/p>\n

O Jap\u00e3o \u00e9 hoje o maior detentor estrangeiro, com 4% dos Treasuries.<\/p>\n

\u201cQualquer venda significativa por parte dos estrangeiros teria grande impacto, elevando os\u00a0yields<\/i>,\u201d disse Jay Barry, o estrategista de renda fixa do banco.<\/p>\n

Segundo o JP Morgan, cada 1 ponto percentual do PIB em redu\u00e7\u00e3o das posi\u00e7\u00f5es estrangeiras acarreta um aumento de 33\u00a0basis points<\/i>\u00a0nos juros dos t\u00edtulos.<\/p>\n

\u201cA \u2018desdolariza\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019 \u00e9 um conceito relacionado \u00e0s mudan\u00e7as estruturais na demanda por d\u00f3lar \u2013 o que inclui seu status como moeda de reserva de valor,\u201d diz o head de global macro research do banco, Luis Oganes.<\/p>\n

Segundo ele, o mundo vinha de uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o comprada em d\u00f3lar, mas com a \u201ceros\u00e3o do excepcionalismo\u201d americano, \u00e9 \u201crazo\u00e1vel\u201d esperar uma redu\u00e7\u00e3o na posse de ativos denominados na moeda americana.<\/p>\n

O economista aponta dois vetores centrais para a perda de confian\u00e7a no d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n

O primeiro s\u00e3o as quest\u00f5es internas dos EUA, como a polariza\u00e7\u00e3o pol\u00edtica \u2013 que pode resvalar na governan\u00e7a do pa\u00eds e afetar sua credibilidade \u2013 e a pol\u00edtica tarif\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n

O segundo fator, diz o banco, seriam eventos externos que poderiam aumentar a credibilidade de moedas alternativas \u2013 como reformas na China, por exemplo.<\/p>\n

\u201cUma candidata a reserva de valor deve ser percebida como segura e est\u00e1vel, al\u00e9m de prover a liquidez necess\u00e1ria para atender o aumento de demanda global,\u201d disse o estrategista Alexander Wise.<\/p>\n

Onde o d\u00f3lar vem ganhando relev\u00e2ncia, entretanto, \u00e9 nos dep\u00f3sitos banc\u00e1rios em alguns pa\u00edses emergentes \u2013 sobretudo na Am\u00e9rica Latina, a regi\u00e3o mais dolarizada do mundo.<\/p>\n

Mas a\u00ed a quest\u00e3o diz respeito \u00e0 falta de credibilidade de suas pr\u00f3prias moedas.<\/p>\n

Fonte da mat\u00e9ria: As evid\u00eancias da \u2018eros\u00e3o\u2019 do d\u00f3lar, segundo o JP Morgan – Brazil Journal – https:\/\/braziljournal.com\/as-evidencias-da-erosao-do-dolar-segundo-o-jp-morgan\/<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Giuliano Guandalini – Os sinais de \u2018desdolariza\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019 da economia mundial v\u00e3o se avolumando, especialmente nas reservas dos bancos centrais e nos contratos de commodities, mostra um relat\u00f3rio do JP Morgan. O percentual do d\u00f3lar nas reservas dos principais bancos centrais do mundo caiu ao menor valor em 20 anos, e a moeda americana vem perdendo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[5],"tags":[58,36],"class_list":["post-24770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-financeirizacao","tag-imperialismo"],"yoast_head":"\nAs evid\u00eancias da \u2018eros\u00e3o\u2019 do d\u00f3lar, segundo o JP Morgan - Controversia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2025\/07\/16\/as-evidencias-da-erosao-do-dolar-segundo-o-jp-morgan\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"As evid\u00eancias da \u2018eros\u00e3o\u2019 do d\u00f3lar, segundo o JP Morgan - Controversia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Giuliano Guandalini – Os sinais de \u2018desdolariza\u00e7\u00e3o\u2019 da economia mundial v\u00e3o se avolumando, especialmente nas reservas dos bancos centrais e nos contratos de commodities, mostra um relat\u00f3rio do JP Morgan. 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