{"id":15721,"date":"2021-09-25T12:41:07","date_gmt":"2021-09-25T15:41:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/?p=15721"},"modified":"2021-09-25T12:41:07","modified_gmt":"2021-09-25T15:41:07","slug":"brasil-pibinho-faz-fumaca-e-acelera-ingovernabilidade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2021\/09\/25\/brasil-pibinho-faz-fumaca-e-acelera-ingovernabilidade\/","title":{"rendered":"Brasil: pibinho faz fuma\u00e7a e acelera ingovernabilidade"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 Martins<\/strong> – Por que o t\u00e3o te\u00admido golpe de Jair Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro anun\u00adciado para a Se\u00admana da P\u00e1\u00adtria acabou n\u00e3o acon\u00adte\u00adcendo? Por v\u00e1\u00adrios mo\u00adtivos. Um deles, talvez o menos im\u00adpor\u00adtante, porque Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro n\u00e3o tem ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica nem para ser di\u00adtador.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 claro que qual\u00adquer bo\u00e7al pode ser um di\u00adtador. At\u00e9 ge\u00adne\u00adrais como Mour\u00e3o, Pa\u00adzu\u00adello etc. re\u00fanem todas as cre\u00adden\u00adciais para o dis\u00adtinto cargo. Como era o caso dos M\u00e9\u00addici, Fi\u00adguei\u00adredo e ou\u00adtros in\u00adte\u00adlec\u00adtu\u00adal\u00admente des\u00adclas\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adcados da p\u00e1\u00adtria amada Brasil.<\/p>\n

O pro\u00adblema \u00e9 que Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro n\u00e3o \u00e9 um bo\u00e7al qual\u00adquer. Ele \u00e9 um bo\u00e7al es\u00adpe\u00adcial. Vejam, por exemplo, o se\u00adguinte fato: ele passou quase 30 anos como de\u00adpu\u00adtado na C\u00e2\u00admara Fe\u00adderal e nunca co\u00admandou ne\u00adnhuma Co\u00admiss\u00e3o de qual\u00adquer as\u00adsunto re\u00adle\u00advante da Casa. In\u00e9rcia total.<\/p>\n

Fi\u00adcava amoi\u00adtado em seu in\u00adfecto ga\u00adbi\u00adnete, onde quase nin\u00adgu\u00e9m es\u00adpe\u00adcial en\u00adtrava nem dava qual\u00adquer im\u00adpor\u00adt\u00e2ncia para aquela obs\u00adcura cri\u00ada\u00adtura.<\/p>\n

Pas\u00adsava o tempo todo fa\u00adzendo re\u00adque\u00adri\u00admentos para be\u00adne\u00adfi\u00adciar po\u00adli\u00adciais, fa\u00adm\u00ed\u00adlias de mi\u00adli\u00adtares, pa\u00adra\u00admi\u00adli\u00adtares, mi\u00adli\u00adci\u00adanos, an\u00adtigos tor\u00adtu\u00adra\u00addores na di\u00adta\u00addura e ou\u00adtras si\u00adnis\u00adtras fi\u00adguras do sub\u00admundo po\u00adli\u00adcial. Esta sempre foi sua base so\u00adcial e elei\u00adtoral. Ga\u00adrantia de re\u00ade\u00adlei\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es e man\u00addatos su\u00adces\u00adsivos.<\/p>\n

Nas grandes ques\u00adt\u00f5es da C\u00e2\u00admara se\u00adguia bo\u00advi\u00adna\u00admente as de\u00adci\u00ads\u00f5es das li\u00adde\u00adran\u00e7as do \u201cbaixo clero\u201d, re\u00adba\u00adti\u00adzado atu\u00adal\u00admente como \u201ccen\u00adtr\u00e3o\u201d, ao qual sempre per\u00adtenceu. Sempre pas\u00adsivo, me\u00add\u00edocre, si\u00adlen\u00adcioso, trai\u00ad\u00e7o\u00adeiro. Corpo e alma de tor\u00adtu\u00adrador. \u00datil apenas para cum\u00adprir as ta\u00adrefas mais in\u00adgl\u00f3\u00adrias e sujas dos seus pa\u00adtr\u00f5es bur\u00adgueses.<\/p>\n

Agora, quando \u00e9 em\u00adpur\u00adrado n\u00e3o pela bur\u00adguesia, mas pela sua base de de\u00adlin\u00adquentes so\u00adciais para tomar uma ati\u00adtude e co\u00admandar um golpe mi\u00adlitar tra\u00addi\u00adci\u00adonal, ele fra\u00adcassa. E a in\u00adgo\u00adver\u00adna\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade bur\u00adguesa se apro\u00adfunda um pouco mais no ter\u00adri\u00adt\u00f3rio do inu\u00adsi\u00adtado e do im\u00adpre\u00advi\u00ads\u00edvel.<\/p>\n

Mas po\u00adderia al\u00adgu\u00e9m me\u00adlhor pre\u00adpa\u00adrado po\u00adli\u00adti\u00adca\u00admente que Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro ser um di\u00adtador como todos est\u00e3o acos\u00adtu\u00admados a ima\u00adginar? Uma di\u00adta\u00addura mi\u00adlitar old fashi\u00adoned seria ade\u00adquada para as ne\u00adces\u00adsi\u00addades atuais da ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00e7\u00e3o bur\u00adguesa da luta de classes no Brasil? Tudo in\u00addica que n\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

Por\u00adtanto, a seu favor pode-se ar\u00adgu\u00admentar que o golpe da se\u00admana da p\u00e1\u00adtria n\u00e3o vingou sim\u00adples\u00admente porque uma di\u00adta\u00addura meia boca, fora de moda, ina\u00adde\u00adquada, deste des\u00adclas\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adcado ou de qual\u00adquer outro aven\u00adtu\u00adreiro, seria ab\u00adso\u00adlu\u00adta\u00admente in\u00adsu\u00adfi\u00adci\u00adente para en\u00adfrentar os inau\u00additos de\u00adsa\u00adfios que a classe dos em\u00adpre\u00ads\u00e1\u00adrios e de\u00admais pa\u00adra\u00adsitas en\u00adfrentam neste mo\u00admento.<\/p>\n

A re\u00ada\u00adli\u00addade ma\u00adte\u00adrial<\/strong><\/p>\n

Faz sen\u00adtido. Afinal, as con\u00addi\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es de fun\u00adci\u00ado\u00adna\u00admento do sis\u00adtema ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlista mu\u00addaram no\u00adta\u00advel\u00admente nos \u00fal\u00adtimos sete ou oito anos. Como cris\u00adta\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o de um pro\u00adcesso mais largo co\u00adnhe\u00adcido como \u201cglo\u00adba\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o\u201d, \u201cne\u00ado\u00adli\u00adbe\u00adra\u00adlismo\u201d, e ou\u00adtros im\u00adpre\u00adcisos ad\u00adje\u00adtivos do pen\u00adsa\u00admento vulgar.<\/p>\n

Como re\u00adsul\u00adtado destas mu\u00addan\u00e7as reais o des\u00adcon\u00adtrole po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtico bur\u00adgu\u00eas evo\u00adluiu para n\u00ed\u00adveis a que n\u00e3o se as\u00adsistia h\u00e1 muito tempo na maior eco\u00adnomia do mundo ao sul do equador.<\/p>\n

Esse cor\u00adro\u00adsivo des\u00adcon\u00adtrole das ins\u00adti\u00adtui\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es do Es\u00adtado bra\u00adsi\u00adleiro \u00e9 im\u00adpul\u00adsi\u00ado\u00adnado em pri\u00admeiro lugar por de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adnantes ma\u00adte\u00adriais. Sem no\u00advi\u00addade. N\u00e3o \u00e9 assim que as coisas fun\u00adci\u00adonam? Ob\u00adser\u00advemos, ini\u00adci\u00adal\u00admente, esses de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adnantes em suas ma\u00adni\u00adfes\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es mais ime\u00addi\u00adatas.<\/p>\n

No in\u00edcio do m\u00eas, por exemplo, o IBGE in\u00adformou que o Pro\u00adduto In\u00adterno Bruto (PIB) caiu no 2\u00ba tri\u00admestre abaixo de zero (- 0,1%) frente ao tri\u00admestre an\u00adte\u00adrior.<\/p>\n

Forte abalo na nar\u00adra\u00adtiva triun\u00adfa\u00adlista dos ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas e seus eco\u00adno\u00admistas de mer\u00adcado de que a eco\u00adnomia havia re\u00adto\u00admado o cres\u00adci\u00admento. Nada mais ilu\u00ads\u00f3rio.<\/p>\n

A pri\u00admeira v\u00ed\u00adtima foi Paulo \u201cIpi\u00adranga\u201d Guedes. Em um mo\u00advi\u00admento in\u00adcri\u00advel\u00admente sin\u00adcro\u00adni\u00adzado e or\u00adques\u00adtrado, \u201cin\u00adves\u00adti\u00addores\u201d e Globo News ini\u00adciam no mesmo dia a fri\u00adtura do seu at\u00e9 a v\u00e9s\u00adpera amado mi\u00adnistro da Eco\u00adnomia.<\/p>\n

O \u201cpi\u00adbinho\u201d dos em\u00adpre\u00ads\u00e1\u00adrios bra\u00adsi\u00adleiros voltou com pompa e cir\u00adcuns\u00adt\u00e2ncia. Ali\u00e1s, nunca deixou de ser \u201cpi\u00adbinho\u201d nos \u00fal\u00adtimos anos. O que apa\u00adrecia como \u201cre\u00adto\u00admada\u201d era mis\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adca\u00e7\u00e3o ba\u00adrata.<\/p>\n

Pas\u00adsadas as tur\u00adbu\u00adl\u00ean\u00adcias es\u00adta\u00adt\u00eds\u00adticas ocor\u00adridas com a pan\u00addemia, nos \u00fal\u00adtimos quatro ou cinco tri\u00admes\u00adtres, a si\u00adtu\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o fica menos em\u00adba\u00ad\u00e7ada: ao inv\u00e9s de uma ima\u00adgi\u00adn\u00e1ria \u201cre\u00adcu\u00adpe\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o em V\u201d, a pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o e o pro\u00adduto na\u00adci\u00adonal se apre\u00adsentam com a mesma cara la\u00advada e abaixo da\u00adquele j\u00e1 tr\u00e1\u00adgico n\u00edvel de antes da pan\u00addemia.<\/p>\n

Se\u00adgundo re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio pu\u00adbli\u00adcado pela OCDE, a eco\u00adnomia bra\u00adsi\u00adleira \u00e9 a \u00fanica das grandes \u201cemer\u00adgentes\u201d que apre\u00adsentou queda no 2\u00ba tri\u00admestre deste ano. A eco\u00adnomia que antes da epi\u00addemia (2019) j\u00e1 es\u00adtava no fundo do po\u00e7o de\u00adpois da pan\u00addemia con\u00adtinua afun\u00addando. E deve con\u00adti\u00adnuar.<\/p>\n

Marque esta con\u00adclus\u00e3o. Para a an\u00e1\u00adlise das pers\u00adpec\u00adtivas po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adticas bra\u00adsi\u00adleiras devem-se tirar as todas as con\u00adsequ\u00ean\u00adcias do se\u00adguinte di\u00adag\u00adn\u00f3s\u00adtico: o re\u00adni\u00adtente \u201cpi\u00adbinho\u201d que as\u00adsombra h\u00e1 quase dez anos o pa\u00eds com mais de 210 mi\u00adlh\u00f5es de ha\u00adbi\u00adtantes para serem re\u00adpro\u00addu\u00adzidos fi\u00adsi\u00adca\u00admente n\u00e3o d\u00e1 sinal de re\u00adcu\u00adpe\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o e de volta do cres\u00adci\u00admento econ\u00f4\u00admico. Ao con\u00adtr\u00e1rio, con\u00adti\u00adnuar\u00e1 afun\u00addando.<\/p>\n

Bur\u00adguesia in\u00adcapaz<\/strong><\/p>\n

Esta anemia pro\u00addu\u00adtiva \u00e9 his\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrica. Tem ra\u00adz\u00f5es mais pro\u00adfundas que uma mera va\u00adri\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB. Por\u00e9m, o mais im\u00adpor\u00adtante \u00e9 saber como ela se apre\u00adsenta agora. H\u00e1 que se isolar e ana\u00adlisar o es\u00adtado atual desta anemia.<\/p>\n

Por isso \u00e9 im\u00adpor\u00adtante ob\u00adservar no mesmo re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio do IBGE de 1\u00ba de se\u00adtembro que ou\u00adtras cru\u00adciais va\u00adri\u00e1\u00adveis econ\u00f4\u00admicas ca\u00edram muito mais ca\u00adtas\u00adtro\u00adfi\u00adca\u00admente que o PIB \u2013 que foi sus\u00adten\u00adtado por um monte de pen\u00addu\u00adri\u00adca\u00adlhos im\u00adpro\u00addu\u00adtivos con\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adzados em ati\u00advi\u00addades no setor de ser\u00advi\u00e7os etc.<\/p>\n

Nos se\u00adtores pro\u00addu\u00adtivos da eco\u00adnomia, a Agro\u00adpe\u00adcu\u00e1ria (o fa\u00admi\u00adge\u00adrado \u201cagro\u00adne\u00adg\u00f3cio\u201d) caiu 2,8%, en\u00adquanto a es\u00adtra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgica In\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria de Trans\u00adfor\u00adma\u00e7\u00e3o \u2013 n\u00fa\u00adcleo re\u00adgu\u00adlador da to\u00adta\u00adli\u00addade da eco\u00adnomia \u2013 tamb\u00e9m amargou queda de 2,2%.<\/p>\n

E, mais im\u00adpor\u00adtante que tudo, a cha\u00admada For\u00adma\u00e7\u00e3o Bruta do Ca\u00adpital Fixo, que, em\u00adbora gros\u00adsei\u00adra\u00admente, mede os in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admentos pro\u00addu\u00adtivos na eco\u00adnomia, caiu 3,8%!<\/p>\n

Os em\u00adpre\u00ads\u00e1\u00adrios bra\u00adsi\u00adleiros formam uma classe de pro\u00adpri\u00ade\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrios dos meios de pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o so\u00adcial mar\u00adcada ge\u00adne\u00adti\u00adca\u00admente pela pre\u00adgui\u00e7a e pas\u00adsi\u00advi\u00addade. T\u00eam a mesma cara cul\u00adtural e cog\u00adni\u00adtiva dos di\u00adversos ca\u00adpi\u00adt\u00e3es do mato que ins\u00adtalam al\u00adter\u00adna\u00adti\u00adva\u00admente na pre\u00adsi\u00add\u00eancia da Re\u00adp\u00fa\u00adblica.<\/p>\n

Os em\u00adpre\u00ads\u00e1\u00adrios bra\u00adsi\u00adleiros cons\u00adti\u00adtuem uma classe de \u201cbo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaros\u201d da in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria. De \u201cca\u00adpi\u00adt\u00e3es da in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria\u201d por\u00adta\u00addores de uma m\u00e1 for\u00adma\u00e7\u00e3o mental ge\u00adne\u00adti\u00adca\u00admente cons\u00adti\u00adtu\u00edda que os torna ir\u00adre\u00adver\u00adsi\u00advel\u00admente des\u00adpre\u00adpa\u00adrados para agir, mo\u00adder\u00adnizar e au\u00admentar as for\u00e7as pro\u00addu\u00adtivas no pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

Assim, sem novos in\u00adves\u00adti\u00admentos para a re\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o am\u00adpliada do ca\u00adpital, a pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade da in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria bra\u00adsi\u00adleira de trans\u00adfor\u00adma\u00e7\u00e3o caiu por tr\u00eas tri\u00admes\u00adtres con\u00adse\u00adcu\u00adtivos.<\/p>\n

No se\u00adgundo tri\u00admestre de 2021, de acordo com o bo\u00adletim Pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade na In\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria, da Con\u00adfe\u00adde\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o Na\u00adci\u00adonal da In\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria (CNI), a pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade do tra\u00adbalho caiu 1,6% em re\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o aos tr\u00eas meses an\u00adte\u00adri\u00adores. Voltou ao n\u00edvel pr\u00f3\u00adximo ao do se\u00adgundo tri\u00admestre de 2020, quando co\u00adme\u00ad\u00e7aram as tur\u00adbu\u00adl\u00ean\u00adcias da pan\u00addemia.<\/p>\n

Eco\u00adnomia real afun\u00addando e gra\u00adv\u00eds\u00adsimos pro\u00adblemas so\u00adciais au\u00admen\u00adtando. Mais de 32 mi\u00adlh\u00f5es de tra\u00adba\u00adlha\u00addores de\u00adsem\u00adpre\u00adgados, clas\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adcados como \u201cpo\u00adpu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o su\u00adbu\u00adti\u00adli\u00adzada\u201d.<\/p>\n

Todo mundo sabe que no re\u00adgime ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlista de pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o se o ci\u00addad\u00e3o des\u00adpro\u00advido de qual\u00adquer meio de pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o ou re\u00adserva n\u00e3o con\u00adse\u00adguir vender por longo pe\u00adr\u00edodo sua for\u00e7a de tra\u00adbalho no mer\u00adcado para ser con\u00adsu\u00admida nas li\u00adnhas de pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o de ca\u00adpital, ele e sua fa\u00adm\u00edlia mor\u00adrer\u00e3o de fome.<\/p>\n

Atu\u00adal\u00admente, a mi\u00ads\u00e9ria e a fome ex\u00adplodem a olho nu nas ruas, ave\u00adnidas e se\u00adm\u00e1\u00adforos das grandes ci\u00addades do pa\u00eds. E v\u00e3o con\u00adti\u00adnuar au\u00admen\u00adtando. Isso en\u00adquadra ri\u00adgi\u00adda\u00admente as pers\u00adpec\u00adtivas po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adticas atuais da bur\u00adguesia bra\u00adsi\u00adleira.<\/p>\n

Por\u00e9m, a po\u00adpu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o em geral s\u00f3 toma co\u00adnhe\u00adci\u00admento dos atuais im\u00adpasses e res\u00adpon\u00adsa\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addades dos em\u00adpre\u00ads\u00e1\u00adrios e de\u00admais pa\u00adra\u00adsitas do sis\u00adtema pela atual si\u00adtu\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o so\u00adcial quando a ex\u00adplos\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os amea\u00e7a di\u00adre\u00adta\u00admente o poder de seu ren\u00addi\u00admento (sa\u00adl\u00e1rio) para pagar pela co\u00admida, alu\u00adguel, luz, g\u00e1s, trans\u00adporte, re\u00adm\u00e9\u00addios e ou\u00adtros meios b\u00e1\u00adsicos de re\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o e so\u00adbre\u00advi\u00adv\u00eancia f\u00ed\u00adsica.<\/p>\n

A ca\u00adrestia est\u00e1 de volta. Mis\u00adtu\u00adrada com o de\u00adsem\u00adprego nas nu\u00advens tudo muda na paz de ce\u00admi\u00adt\u00e9rio dos em\u00adpre\u00ads\u00e1\u00adrios bra\u00adsi\u00adleiros. Resta saber se ela veio para ficar. Ou de que modo esta brusca ele\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os \u00e9 apenas uma das ma\u00adni\u00adfes\u00adta\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es de uma cor\u00adres\u00adpon\u00addente e n\u00e3o menos ca\u00adtas\u00adtr\u00f3\u00adfica de\u00adsa\u00adce\u00adle\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o de ca\u00adpital no pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

O fato \u00e9 que a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o ofi\u00adcial do pa\u00eds, me\u00addida pelo IPCA (\u00cdn\u00addice Na\u00adci\u00adonal de Pre\u00e7os ao Con\u00adsu\u00admidor Amplo), al\u00adcan\u00e7ou a maior taxa para um m\u00eas de agosto (0,87%) em 21 anos e, com o re\u00adsul\u00adtado, en\u00adcostou em 10% no acu\u00admu\u00adlado de 12 meses (9,68%).<\/p>\n

\u00c9 o que apontam os dados di\u00advul\u00adgados na quinta-feira, 9, por outro re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio do IBGE. Vejam o ta\u00admanho do es\u00adtrago no gr\u00e1\u00adfico abaixo.<\/p>\n

Segue a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong><\/p>\n

Em agosto de 2020 a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o nos \u00fal\u00adtimos doze meses era de ci\u00advi\u00adli\u00adzados 2,44%. Agora, um ano de\u00adpois, ela subiu para in\u00adde\u00adcentes 9,68%. Esta ful\u00admi\u00adnante ele\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os \u00e9 pra\u00adti\u00adca\u00admente in\u00e9\u00addita. E letal para uma eco\u00adnomia do\u00admi\u00adnada da pe\u00adri\u00adferia que n\u00e3o tem moeda na\u00adci\u00adonal re\u00adco\u00adnhe\u00adcida no mer\u00adcado cam\u00adbial in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal.<\/p>\n

Quem n\u00e3o tem \u201cmoeda forte\u201d s\u00f3 pode fazer po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica econ\u00f4\u00admica fraca, in\u00f3cua. Este \u00e9 o des\u00adtino dos go\u00advernos de eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnadas e seus im\u00adpo\u00adtentes eco\u00adno\u00admistas.<\/p>\n

Ao chegar a pra\u00adti\u00adca\u00admente 10% no acu\u00admu\u00adlado de 12 meses, o IPCA am\u00adpliou a dis\u00adt\u00e2ncia frente ao teto da meta de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o (5,25%) es\u00adta\u00adbe\u00adle\u00adcida pelo Banco Cen\u00adtral (BC). No acu\u00admu\u00adlado at\u00e9 julho, a va\u00adri\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o es\u00adtava em 8,99%.
\nEs\u00adti\u00admamos que o IPCA se ele\u00advar\u00e1 para a faixa de 10,5 a 11,5% no m\u00eas de de\u00adzembro. Isto for\u00ad\u00e7ar\u00e1 ne\u00adces\u00adsa\u00adri\u00ada\u00admente (e inu\u00adtil\u00admente) a ele\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa b\u00e1\u00adsica de juros (Selic) para pelo menos 10%.<\/p>\n

Este j\u00e1 \u00e9 um ce\u00adn\u00e1rio con\u00adser\u00advador, pois sup\u00f5e uma con\u00adten\u00e7\u00e3o e es\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o da ten\u00add\u00eancia atual dos pre\u00e7os, con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adrando ce\u00adn\u00e1rio al\u00adta\u00admente im\u00adpro\u00adv\u00e1vel de re\u00adcu\u00adpe\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da eco\u00adnomia global etc.<\/p>\n

Na data de ontem o Bo\u00adletim Focus, do BC, com pre\u00advi\u00ads\u00f5es do mer\u00adcado, in\u00addi\u00adcava IPCA de 8,5% e taxa Selic de 8% em de\u00adzembro de 2021. N\u00e3o \u00e9 t\u00e3o di\u00adfe\u00adrente do nosso ce\u00adn\u00e1rio. De todo modo, ambos sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adcar\u00e3o forte de\u00adsor\u00adga\u00adni\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o de todas as va\u00adri\u00e1\u00adveis fis\u00adcais e do or\u00ad\u00e7a\u00admento do go\u00adverno. E forte press\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m para maior des\u00adva\u00adlo\u00adri\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o do real frente ao d\u00f3lar. O Brasil \u00e9 um ser cada vez mais in\u00adv\u00e1\u00adlido na ordem ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlista mun\u00addial.<\/p>\n

O re\u00adsul\u00adtado de agosto do IPCA tamb\u00e9m mos\u00adtrou um au\u00admento mais ge\u00adne\u00adra\u00adli\u00adzado nos pre\u00e7os. Quer dizer, a in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o se es\u00adpalha como agres\u00adsiva me\u00adt\u00e1s\u00adtase para a mai\u00adoria dos se\u00adtores econ\u00f4\u00admicos. Esta alta de pre\u00e7os mais dis\u00adse\u00admi\u00adnada pode ser me\u00addida pelo \u201c\u00edn\u00addice de di\u00adfus\u00e3o\u201d do IPCA.<\/p>\n

Con\u00adforme o IBGE, o in\u00addi\u00adcador, que ana\u00adlisa o per\u00adcen\u00adtual de itens con\u00adta\u00admi\u00adnados com au\u00admentos nos seus pre\u00e7os de mer\u00adcado, passou de 64% em julho para 72% em agosto.<\/p>\n

Quanto maior essa con\u00adta\u00admi\u00adna\u00e7\u00e3o, mais di\u00adf\u00edcil a re\u00advers\u00e3o do pro\u00adcesso. In\u00addica fa\u00adtores b\u00e1\u00adsicos muito fortes se ma\u00adni\u00adfes\u00adtando na su\u00adper\u00adf\u00edcie e im\u00adpul\u00adsi\u00ado\u00adnando o pro\u00adcesso.<\/p>\n

Por isso, da mesma forma que para ex\u00adplicar a volta do \u201cpi\u00adbinho\u201d, os eco\u00adno\u00admistas est\u00e3o per\u00addidos na ex\u00adpli\u00adca\u00e7\u00e3o da volta da ca\u00adrestia e da sua irm\u00e3 g\u00eamea, a des\u00adva\u00adlo\u00adri\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o cam\u00adbial da moeda na\u00adci\u00adonal.<\/p>\n

N\u00e3o sabem dizer qual o re\u00adm\u00e9dio mo\u00adne\u00adt\u00e1rio e fiscal capaz de re\u00adverter o pro\u00adcesso de in\u00adfla\u00e7\u00e3o e de des\u00adva\u00adlo\u00adri\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o cam\u00adbial. Isso acon\u00adtece porque eles n\u00e3o levam em conta em seu ra\u00adci\u00ado\u00adc\u00ednio li\u00admi\u00adtado de co\u00admer\u00adci\u00adantes pr\u00e1\u00adticos o que de\u00adter\u00admina o valor de uma moeda na\u00adci\u00adonal, e, con\u00adse\u00adquen\u00adte\u00admente, da taxa de c\u00e2mbio.<\/p>\n

Di\u00adfe\u00adren\u00adte\u00admente do que se passa nas eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnantes do centro do sis\u00adtema, tanto o tra\u00adva\u00admento do PIB quanto a ele\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o de pre\u00e7os in\u00adternos no Brasil de\u00adrivam fun\u00adda\u00admen\u00adtal\u00admente de uma bai\u00adx\u00eds\u00adsima pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade do tra\u00adbalho e de uma es\u00adtru\u00adtural fra\u00adgi\u00adli\u00addade tri\u00adbu\u00adt\u00e1ria e fiscal do go\u00adverno. As duas coisas est\u00e3o li\u00adgadas. E se re\u00adtro\u00ada\u00adli\u00admentam.<\/p>\n

Mas n\u00e3o se trata aqui das li\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4\u00admicas que cercam este pro\u00adblema da de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adna\u00e7\u00e3o do valor de uma moeda na\u00adci\u00adonal, que j\u00e1 tra\u00adtamos em in\u00fa\u00admeros bo\u00adle\u00adtins pas\u00adsados.<\/p>\n

Aqui se trata apenas de afirmar que os dados atuais da pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o e da pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade in\u00addus\u00adtrial no Brasil, que vimos de pas\u00adsagem acima, per\u00admitem an\u00adtever um agra\u00adva\u00admento das con\u00addi\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4\u00admicas e so\u00adciais no pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

E, se n\u00e3o podem re\u00adceitar o re\u00adm\u00e9dio para os pro\u00adblemas atuais da eco\u00adnomia, a \u00fanica coisa que os ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas e seus eco\u00adno\u00admistas podem dizer com certa exa\u00adtid\u00e3o \u00e9 que tudo que j\u00e1 est\u00e1 ruim pode ficar pior ainda.<\/p>\n

Foi exa\u00adta\u00admente isso que eles an\u00addaram di\u00adzendo. Se h\u00e1 al\u00adgumas se\u00admanas es\u00adti\u00admavam uma alta acima de 2% do PIB (Pro\u00adduto In\u00adterno Bruto) para 2022, agora eles j\u00e1 ava\u00adliam que o cres\u00adci\u00admento pode ficar abaixo de 1%.<\/p>\n

O Banco JP Morgan, por exemplo, que antes pro\u00adje\u00adtava 1,5% de cres\u00adci\u00admento para o ano que vem, re\u00advisou a ex\u00adpec\u00adta\u00adtiva para 0,9%.<\/p>\n

A MB As\u00adso\u00adci\u00adados, outro res\u00adpei\u00adtado n\u00fa\u00adcleo de con\u00adsul\u00adtores de mer\u00adcado, trouxe ce\u00adn\u00e1\u00adrios mais pre\u00adcisos para o ano que vem. Antes, tra\u00adba\u00adlhava com cres\u00adci\u00admento de 1,4% para o PIB de 2022, na \u00fal\u00adtima se\u00admana re\u00advisou as es\u00adti\u00adma\u00adtivas para 0,4%.<\/p>\n

Para o ano que vem, a con\u00adsul\u00adtoria prev\u00ea coisas mais im\u00adpor\u00adtantes que uma mera re\u00adtra\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB. Prev\u00ea – cor\u00adre\u00adta\u00admente, diga-se de pas\u00adsagem – uma queda de 1,4% da pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o in\u00addus\u00adtrial, com des\u00adtaque para a in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria de trans\u00adfor\u00adma\u00e7\u00e3o (-1,9%) e para a cons\u00adtru\u00e7\u00e3o civil (-2,1%).<\/p>\n

O Ita\u00fa Uni\u00adbanco \u00e9 outro que pro\u00adje\u00adtava um cres\u00adci\u00admento de 1,5% e re\u00advisou o avan\u00e7o para 0,5% em 2022. E outra coisa mui\u00adt\u00eds\u00adsimo im\u00adpor\u00adtante: do mesmo modo que a mai\u00adoria dos de\u00admais eco\u00adno\u00admistas da Faria Lima e Ave\u00adnida Pau\u00adlista os ana\u00adlistas do Ita\u00fa Uni\u00adbanco tamb\u00e9m alertam para uma de\u00adsa\u00adce\u00adle\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da eco\u00adnomia global no ano que vem.<\/p>\n

Este ce\u00adn\u00e1rio de crise global im\u00adpac\u00adtaria ainda mais for\u00adte\u00admente a eco\u00adnomia bra\u00adsi\u00adleira. Os eco\u00adno\u00admistas j\u00e1 de\u00adtectam que os pre\u00e7os de com\u00admo\u00addi\u00adties agr\u00ed\u00adcolas e mi\u00adne\u00adrais pa\u00adraram de subir, e al\u00adguns deles est\u00e3o caindo, como o mi\u00adn\u00e9rio de ferro, milho etc.<\/p>\n

As ca\u00adrac\u00adte\u00adr\u00eds\u00adticas e grau de pro\u00adfun\u00addi\u00addade da crise global, que devem co\u00adme\u00e7ar a se ma\u00adte\u00adri\u00ada\u00adlizar nos pr\u00f3\u00adximos tri\u00admes\u00adtres no mer\u00adcado mun\u00addial \u2013 eco\u00adno\u00admias dos EUA e China como de\u00adto\u00adna\u00addoras do pro\u00adcesso \u2013 \u00e9 o que dar\u00e1 r\u00e9gua e com\u00adpasso da crise po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica e so\u00adcial bra\u00adsi\u00adleira.<\/p>\n

O que ser\u00e1 de n\u00f3s?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Resta ob\u00adservar que um agra\u00adva\u00admento destas con\u00addi\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es na\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais de re\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o do ca\u00adpital, com a pro\u00adfun\u00addi\u00addade que se anuncia nas breves ob\u00adser\u00adva\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es acima, n\u00e3o acon\u00adtece im\u00adpu\u00adne\u00admente. E que estes ventos con\u00adtr\u00e1\u00adrios de mag\u00adni\u00adtude in\u00e9\u00addita dos de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adnantes ma\u00adte\u00adriais, muda tamb\u00e9m a qua\u00adli\u00addade do pro\u00adcesso po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtico.<\/p>\n

S\u00e3o cru\u00adciais as con\u00adsequ\u00ean\u00adcias desta mu\u00addan\u00e7a de qua\u00adli\u00addade de uma crise po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica de go\u00adverno, mais co\u00admu\u00admente ob\u00adser\u00advada, para uma rara crise de Es\u00adtado. De uma crise ins\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adci\u00adonal para uma crise re\u00advo\u00adlu\u00adci\u00ado\u00adn\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n

Assim, \u00e9 no meio do ca\u00adminho para esta in\u00adcr\u00edvel e t\u00e3o es\u00adpe\u00adrada me\u00adta\u00admor\u00adfose de in\u00adgo\u00adver\u00adna\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade bur\u00adguesa no Brasil que se pode en\u00adtender me\u00adlhor os mo\u00adtivos da\u00adquela im\u00adpo\u00adt\u00eancia de Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro de aplicar um golpe mi\u00adlitar con\u00adven\u00adci\u00adonal na Se\u00admana da P\u00e1\u00adtria.<\/p>\n

O golpe seria bem su\u00adce\u00addido, apesar da no\u00adt\u00f3ria e par\u00adti\u00adcular bo\u00ad\u00e7a\u00adli\u00addade do seu exe\u00adcutor, se fosse uma ga\u00adrantia de que os lu\u00adcros con\u00adti\u00adnu\u00adassem a jorrar e a ca\u00adt\u00e1s\u00adtrofe so\u00adcial pu\u00addesse ser con\u00adtro\u00adlada pelas armas. N\u00e3o con\u00advenceu as classes do\u00admi\u00adnantes.<\/p>\n

Mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 s\u00f3 o fra\u00adcas\u00adsado golpe de Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro que n\u00e3o pode dar esta ga\u00adrantia. Ta\u00admanha fa\u00ad\u00e7anha de salvar o ca\u00adpital e as\u00adsas\u00adsinar im\u00adpu\u00adne\u00admente de\u00adzenas de mi\u00adlh\u00f5es de tra\u00adba\u00adlha\u00addores da \u201cpo\u00adpu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o su\u00adbu\u00adti\u00adli\u00adzada\u201d tamb\u00e9m n\u00e3o po\u00adder\u00e1 mais ser obra de novo pre\u00adsi\u00addente le\u00adgi\u00adti\u00adma\u00admente es\u00adco\u00adlhido pelas con\u00adfi\u00e1\u00adveis e au\u00addi\u00adt\u00e1\u00adveis urnas ele\u00adtr\u00f4\u00adnicas do Su\u00adpremo Tri\u00adbunal Elei\u00adtoral.<\/p>\n

Ne\u00adnhum di\u00adtador mais ar\u00adti\u00adcu\u00adlado com o com\u00adbate \u00e0s de\u00adsi\u00adgual\u00addades ou qual\u00adquer amigo do povo e suas ine\u00adf\u00e1\u00adveis po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adticas p\u00fa\u00adblicas de com\u00adbate \u00e0 po\u00adbreza ser\u00e3o mais efi\u00adci\u00adentes que Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro no en\u00adfren\u00adta\u00admento da crise de in\u00adgo\u00adver\u00adna\u00adbi\u00adli\u00addade do Es\u00adtado ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlista bra\u00adsi\u00adleiro, que se apro\u00adfundou um pou\u00adquinho mais nas \u00fal\u00adtimas se\u00admanas.<\/p>\n

Fonte da mat\u00e9ria: Brasil: pibinho faz fuma\u00e7a e acelera ingovernabilidade. Link: https:\/\/www.correiocidadania.com.br\/2-uncategorised\/14771-brasil-pibinho-faz-fumaca-e-acelera-ingovernabilidade<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 Martins – Por que o t\u00e3o te\u00admido golpe de Jair Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro anun\u00adciado para a Se\u00admana da P\u00e1\u00adtria acabou n\u00e3o acon\u00adte\u00adcendo? Por v\u00e1\u00adrios mo\u00adtivos. Um deles, talvez o menos im\u00adpor\u00adtante, porque Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro n\u00e3o tem ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica nem para ser di\u00adtador. \u00c9 claro que qual\u00adquer bo\u00e7al pode ser um di\u00adtador. At\u00e9 ge\u00adne\u00adrais como Mour\u00e3o, Pa\u00adzu\u00adello etc. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4322,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[75,49],"class_list":["post-15721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-bolsonarismo","tag-conjuntura"],"yoast_head":"\nBrasil: pibinho faz fuma\u00e7a e acelera ingovernabilidade - Controversia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2021\/09\/25\/brasil-pibinho-faz-fumaca-e-acelera-ingovernabilidade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brasil: pibinho faz fuma\u00e7a e acelera ingovernabilidade - Controversia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 Martins – Por que o t\u00e3o te\u00admido golpe de Jair Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro anun\u00adciado para a Se\u00admana da P\u00e1\u00adtria acabou n\u00e3o acon\u00adte\u00adcendo? Por v\u00e1\u00adrios mo\u00adtivos. Um deles, talvez o menos im\u00adpor\u00adtante, porque Bo\u00ad\u00e7al\u00adnaro n\u00e3o tem ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade po\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica nem para ser di\u00adtador. \u00c9 claro que qual\u00adquer bo\u00e7al pode ser um di\u00adtador. 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