{"id":14153,"date":"2020-10-30T16:08:35","date_gmt":"2020-10-30T19:08:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/?p=14153"},"modified":"2020-10-29T16:10:14","modified_gmt":"2020-10-29T19:10:14","slug":"a-procura-do-lucro-perdido","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2020\/10\/30\/a-procura-do-lucro-perdido\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c0 procura do lucro perdido"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 Martins<\/strong> – Pouco mais de tr\u00eas meses atr\u00e1s, podia ser ob\u00adser\u00advado que a eco\u00adnomia mun\u00addial co\u00adme\u00ad\u00e7ava a ser re\u00adti\u00adrada do coma in\u00addu\u00adzido im\u00adposto pelos ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas a partir do m\u00eas de abril.<\/p>\n

Qual seria a cara do pa\u00adci\u00adente de\u00adpois do pe\u00adri\u00adgoso lock\u00addown (fe\u00adcha\u00admento) da eco\u00adnomia de\u00adci\u00addido pelos seus pro\u00adpri\u00ade\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrios como forma de en\u00adfren\u00adta\u00admento da epi\u00addemia sa\u00adni\u00adt\u00e1ria da COVID 19?<\/p>\n

A res\u00adposta quase un\u00e2\u00adnime podia ser en\u00adcon\u00adtrada na ilu\u00ads\u00f3ria e for\u00adt\u00eds\u00adsima opi\u00adni\u00e3o dos eco\u00adno\u00admistas e dos go\u00advernos de um re\u00adtorno ao cres\u00adci\u00admento econ\u00f4\u00admico, do em\u00adprego e dos pro\u00advi\u00adden\u00adciais lu\u00adcros a partir do ter\u00adceiro tri\u00admestre do ano (julho\/se\u00adtembro).<\/p>\n

A quase to\u00adta\u00adli\u00addade dos ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas e seus eco\u00adno\u00admistas acre\u00addi\u00adtavam pi\u00ada\u00admente no im\u00adpre\u00adciso re\u00adtorno em V da eco\u00adnomia: bate no ch\u00e3o e volta triun\u00adfante para novo ciclo de lu\u00adcros e cres\u00adci\u00admento. E tudo volta ao normal.<\/p>\n

A hora da ver\u00addade havia che\u00adgado. A se\u00adgunda me\u00adtade do ano seria, ent\u00e3o, o mo\u00admento de \u2018mostre-me\u2019 para os que apos\u00adtaram pe\u00adsado na ex\u00adpec\u00adta\u00adtiva de uma re\u00adcu\u00adpe\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o em forma de V da eco\u00adnomia real ap\u00f3s o \u201cdes\u00adli\u00adga\u00admento do co\u00adro\u00adna\u00adv\u00edrus\u201d. Afinal, a eco\u00adnomia mun\u00addial co\u00adme\u00ad\u00e7ava a sair do coma in\u00addu\u00adzido…<\/p>\n

E agora, j\u00e1 en\u00adcer\u00adrado o ter\u00adceiro tri\u00admestre do ano e se ace\u00adle\u00adrando ra\u00adpi\u00adda\u00admente para o en\u00adcer\u00adra\u00admento do se\u00adgundo se\u00admestre? Como \u00e9 que a coisa se passou? Como est\u00e1 a cara do pa\u00adci\u00adente neste mo\u00admento do \u201cmostre-me\u201d, de\u00adpois do \u201cdes\u00adli\u00adga\u00admento do co\u00adro\u00adna\u00adv\u00edrus\u201d? A res\u00adposta \u00e9: nem um pouco ani\u00adma\u00addora; e muito menos com sor\u00adriso em V.<\/p>\n

Na re\u00ada\u00adli\u00addade, o que se re\u00advela com a di\u00advul\u00adga\u00e7\u00e3o de novos n\u00fa\u00admeros deste pro\u00adcesso \u00e9 uma coisa muito im\u00adpor\u00adtante: ao con\u00adtr\u00e1rio do que ima\u00adgina a v\u00e3 opi\u00adni\u00e3o po\u00adpular, esta crise econ\u00f4\u00admica n\u00e3o \u00e9 pro\u00advo\u00adcada pela COVID 19 \u2013 como os ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas e seus eco\u00adno\u00admistas ainda vendem (e con\u00adti\u00adnu\u00adar\u00e3o ven\u00addendo) para a opi\u00adni\u00e3o p\u00fa\u00adblica \u2013 e nem mesmo pelo efe\u00adtivo lock\u00addown da eco\u00adnomia que durou de ma\u00adneira mais in\u00adtensa entre mar\u00e7o e junho deste ano.<\/p>\n

Sem essa im\u00adpor\u00adtante se\u00adpa\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da re\u00ada\u00adli\u00addade e das fan\u00adta\u00adsias da eco\u00adnomia vulgar acerca da na\u00adtu\u00adreza da atual crise econ\u00f4\u00admica fica im\u00adpos\u00ads\u00edvel acom\u00adpa\u00adnhar seus des\u00addo\u00adbra\u00admentos. A me\u00adlhor ma\u00adneira de evitar esta ar\u00adma\u00addilha \u00e9 ana\u00adlisar cri\u00adte\u00adri\u00ado\u00adsa\u00admente esses dados sobre o es\u00adtado do pa\u00adci\u00adente. Vamos a eles.<\/p>\n

Se existe al\u00adguma se\u00adme\u00adlhan\u00e7a da atual crise pe\u00adri\u00f3\u00addica de su\u00adper\u00adpro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o de ca\u00adpital com a COVID 19 \u00e9 que as duas co\u00adme\u00ad\u00e7aram a se ma\u00adni\u00adfestar ainda dis\u00adcre\u00adta\u00admente em 2019. Exa\u00adta\u00admente no 4\u00ba tri\u00admestre de 2019.<\/p>\n

Mas a se\u00adme\u00adlhan\u00e7a para por a\u00ed. Sem a m\u00ed\u00adnima pre\u00adsen\u00e7a de qual\u00adquer lock\u00addown na eco\u00adnomia, a in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria de bens de con\u00adsumo du\u00adr\u00e1\u00adveis dos EUA caiu 1,5% no \u00fal\u00adtimo tri\u00admestre de 2019.<\/p>\n

E con\u00adti\u00adnuou caindo pe\u00adsa\u00adda\u00admente (\u2013 9,8%) no 1\u00ba tri\u00admestre de 2020, se\u00adgundo re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio mensal da Pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o In\u00addus\u00adtrial e Uti\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o da Ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade, pu\u00adbli\u00adcado nesta sexta-feira (16) pelo Fe\u00adderal Re\u00adserve Bank (Fed, banco cen\u00adtral dos EUA).<\/p>\n

Note-se que neste 1\u00ba tri\u00admestre do ano (ja\u00adneiro a mar\u00e7o), a in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria dos EUA n\u00e3o havia ainda so\u00adfrido efeito de qual\u00adquer lock\u00addown. Isso pode ser com\u00adpro\u00advado pelos n\u00fa\u00admeros da uti\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o da ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade ins\u00adta\u00adlada, pu\u00adbli\u00adcados pelo re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio do Fed.<\/p>\n

Assim, no 4\u00ba tri\u00admestre de 2019, os ramos de pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o de bens du\u00adr\u00e1\u00adveis re\u00adgis\u00adtavam 74,9% de uti\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o da ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade ins\u00adta\u00adlada. No 1\u00ba tri\u00admestre de 2020 (quando, re\u00adpe\u00adtindo, a pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o caiu 9,8%) a uti\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o da ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade ins\u00adta\u00adlada ainda es\u00adtava bas\u00adtante ele\u00advada: 72,9%. E ainda com pleno em\u00adprego da for\u00e7a de tra\u00adbalho.<\/p>\n

Estes dados s\u00e3o muito im\u00adpor\u00adtantes para es\u00adcla\u00adrecer a na\u00adtu\u00adreza do atual pe\u00adr\u00edodo de crise do ciclo econ\u00f4\u00admico. Ob\u00adserva-se ent\u00e3o, em pri\u00admeiro lugar, que antes de qual\u00adquer lock\u00addown a pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o in\u00addus\u00adtrial dos EUA \u2013 que re\u00adgula a di\u00adn\u00e2\u00admica real do mer\u00adcado mun\u00addial \u2013 j\u00e1 es\u00adtava em queda sig\u00adni\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adtiva por dois tri\u00admes\u00adtres se\u00adguidos.<\/p>\n

E a pe\u00adquena va\u00adri\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o da uti\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o da ca\u00adpa\u00adci\u00addade ins\u00adta\u00adlada no 1\u00ba tri\u00admestre de 2020 \u00e9 a com\u00adpro\u00adva\u00e7\u00e3o in\u00addis\u00adcu\u00adt\u00edvel que os ele\u00admentos en\u00add\u00f3\u00adgenos da pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o in\u00addus\u00adtrial (valor agre\u00adgado, mais-valia, lucro e pre\u00e7o de pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o) foram os ele\u00admentos de\u00adter\u00admi\u00adnantes da queda do pro\u00adcesso de va\u00adlo\u00adri\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o do ca\u00adpital.<\/p>\n

Esta pre\u00adva\u00adl\u00eancia dos ele\u00admentos en\u00add\u00f3\u00adgenos do pro\u00adcesso de acu\u00admu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o do ca\u00adpital na crise atual pode ser tamb\u00e9m com\u00adpro\u00advada pelo mais re\u00adcente Re\u00adla\u00adt\u00f3rio Fi\u00adnan\u00adceiro Tri\u00admes\u00adtral das Ma\u00adnu\u00adfa\u00adturas dos EUA, pu\u00adbli\u00adcado em 8\/9\/2020 pelo do Bu\u00adreau of Census dos EUA.<\/p>\n

Re\u00advela-se, ent\u00e3o, que no 2\u00ba tri\u00admestre de 2020 (abril\/junho), quando j\u00e1 se po\u00adderia con\u00adsi\u00adderar algum efeito ex\u00f3\u00adgeno do lock\u00addown sobre a pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o, o valor do fa\u00adtu\u00adra\u00admento das ma\u00adnu\u00adfa\u00adturas es\u00adta\u00addu\u00adni\u00addenses (bens du\u00adr\u00e1\u00adveis e n\u00e3o du\u00adr\u00e1\u00adveis) caiu apenas 24% frente ao 2\u00ba tri\u00admestre do ano an\u00adte\u00adrior. Na mesma com\u00adpa\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o, no 1\u00ba tri\u00admestre\/2020 o fa\u00adtu\u00adra\u00admento havia ca\u00eddo s\u00f3 10%.<\/p>\n

No ima\u00adgi\u00adn\u00e1rio po\u00adpular, o COVID 19 fez com que a pro\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o e as vendas da in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria te\u00adnham sido t\u00e3o pa\u00adra\u00adli\u00adsadas quanto \u00e0s ocor\u00adridas com in\u00fa\u00admeros se\u00adtores im\u00adpro\u00addu\u00adtivos da eco\u00adnomia \u2013 pe\u00adqueno co\u00adm\u00e9rcio, es\u00adcolas, ci\u00adnemas, bares, res\u00adtau\u00adrantes, ca\u00adbe\u00adlei\u00adreiros, aca\u00adde\u00admias, fu\u00adtebol, te\u00adatro, li\u00advra\u00adrias, vi\u00ada\u00adgens a\u00e9\u00adreas etc. Con\u00adtudo, os dados reais re\u00advelam exa\u00adta\u00admente o con\u00adtr\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n

Outro mo\u00advi\u00admento im\u00adpor\u00adtante: em\u00adbora o fa\u00adtu\u00adra\u00admento da in\u00add\u00fas\u00adtria tenha ca\u00eddo pouco mais de 30% nos pri\u00admeiros seis meses deste ano, a massa de lucro ope\u00adra\u00adci\u00adonal das ma\u00adnu\u00adfa\u00adturas caiu 30% no pri\u00admeiro tri\u00admestre e 50% no 2\u00ba tri\u00admestre (sempre com\u00adpa\u00adrando com o 2\u00ba tri\u00admestre\/2019).<\/p>\n

Lem\u00adbremos que lucro ope\u00adra\u00adci\u00adonal \u00e9 o que re\u00adtrata me\u00adlhor as con\u00addi\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es de va\u00adlo\u00adri\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o do ca\u00adpital e da em\u00adpresa. Trata-se do lucro com a ati\u00advi\u00addade prin\u00adcipal e pro\u00addu\u00adtiva (ope\u00adra\u00adci\u00adonal) da em\u00adpresa \u2013 quer dizer, lucro antes dos im\u00adpostos, das re\u00adceitas ou des\u00adpesas n\u00e3o ope\u00adra\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais como juros, rendas etc., assim como das des\u00adpesas im\u00adpro\u00addu\u00adtivas ocor\u00adridas dentro da em\u00adpresa, como ad\u00admi\u00adnis\u00adtra\u00e7\u00e3o, vendas, pu\u00adbli\u00adci\u00addade etc.<\/p>\n

O saldo final destas re\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es foi o se\u00adguinte: a taxa de lucro ope\u00adra\u00adci\u00adonal m\u00e9dia de 8,43% do pe\u00adr\u00edodo de ex\u00adpans\u00e3o do ciclo an\u00adte\u00adrior (re\u00adgis\u00adtrada no 2\u00ba tri\u00admestre\/2019) havia ca\u00eddo ful\u00admi\u00adnan\u00adte\u00admente para 6,63% no 1\u00ba tri\u00admestre de 2020 e para 5,73% no 2\u00ba tri\u00admestre de 2020.<\/p>\n

Im\u00adpor\u00adtante con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o a ser le\u00advada em conta: a su\u00adpe\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o do atual pe\u00adr\u00edodo de crise, a sa\u00edda bem su\u00adce\u00addida do coma in\u00addu\u00adzido, s\u00f3 ser\u00e1 pos\u00ads\u00edvel quando este de\u00adsa\u00adba\u00admento da taxa de lucro ope\u00adra\u00adci\u00adonal nas ma\u00adnu\u00adfa\u00adturas for re\u00adver\u00adtido para as pro\u00adxi\u00admi\u00addades do pa\u00adtamar de 8,43%, que cor\u00adres\u00adpondia, grosso modo, \u00e0 taxa de lucro geral nas ma\u00adnu\u00adfa\u00adturas es\u00adta\u00addu\u00adni\u00addenses no pe\u00adr\u00edodo de ex\u00adpans\u00e3o c\u00ed\u00adclica dos \u00fal\u00adtimos dez anos.<\/p>\n

Mas esta re\u00adcu\u00adpe\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da taxa de lucro geral da eco\u00adnomia de ponta do sis\u00adtema, ab\u00adso\u00adlu\u00adta\u00admente ne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1ria para a su\u00adpe\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da crise atual, de\u00adpende uni\u00adca\u00admente e antes de tudo de duas coisas:<\/p>\n

primo, do au\u00admento da taxa de mais-valia, quer dizer, da pro\u00addu\u00adti\u00advi\u00addade ou de ex\u00adplo\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o da classe ope\u00adr\u00e1ria em toda crosta ter\u00adrestre;<\/p>\n

se\u00adcondo, mas n\u00e3o menos im\u00adpor\u00adtante: a re\u00adto\u00admada da taxa geral de lucro na eco\u00adnomia re\u00adgu\u00adla\u00addora do sis\u00adtema global de\u00adpende do au\u00admento da dis\u00adputa e ex\u00adpans\u00e3o im\u00adpe\u00adri\u00ada\u00adlista por novos mer\u00adcados (mais glo\u00adba\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o), re\u00addu\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os de ma\u00adt\u00e9\u00adrias primas no co\u00adm\u00e9rcio in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal e, como re\u00adsul\u00adtado final, au\u00admento da ex\u00adplo\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o das eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnantes sobre as eco\u00adno\u00admias do\u00admi\u00adnadas da pe\u00adri\u00adferia do sis\u00adtema.<\/p>\n

Mais im\u00adpor\u00adtante que tudo. Estas pro\u00advi\u00add\u00ean\u00adcias para a \u201ces\u00adta\u00adbi\u00adli\u00adza\u00e7\u00e3o da eco\u00adnomia\u201d n\u00e3o podem de\u00admorar eter\u00adna\u00admente. Ao con\u00adtr\u00e1rio do pe\u00adr\u00edodo de ex\u00adpans\u00e3o (com uma taxa geral de lucro ade\u00adquada) que \u00e9 bas\u00adtante el\u00e1s\u00adtico e pode va\u00adriar de quatro a dez anos, apro\u00adxi\u00adma\u00adda\u00admente, o pe\u00adr\u00edodo de crise, no qual a eco\u00adnomia se en\u00adcontra atu\u00adal\u00admente, n\u00e3o pode durar mais do que sete ou oito tri\u00admes\u00adtres.<\/p>\n

Se o pa\u00adci\u00adente n\u00e3o sair do coma in\u00addu\u00adzido em bom es\u00adtado (exa\u00adlando n\u00ed\u00adveis ade\u00adquados de taxa de lucro) neste curto pe\u00adr\u00edodo de tempo, a crise, por en\u00adquanto par\u00adcial, pode de\u00adsabar abrup\u00adta\u00admente para uma crise geral, quando o tempo de\u00adsa\u00adpa\u00adrece.<\/p>\n

Por\u00adtanto, resta ob\u00adservar agora (ou\u00adtubro de 2020) como est\u00e1 se mos\u00adtrando a cara do pa\u00adci\u00adente de\u00adpois do pleno res\u00adgate do coma in\u00addu\u00adzido e do \u201cdes\u00adli\u00adga\u00admento do co\u00adro\u00adna\u00advirus\u201d.<\/p>\n

Quais s\u00e3o os re\u00adm\u00e9\u00addios que os ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas, os eco\u00adno\u00admistas e suas ins\u00adti\u00adtui\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es bu\u00adro\u00adcr\u00e1\u00adticas in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais est\u00e3o re\u00adcei\u00adtando para re\u00adtomar seus lu\u00adcros e evitar a amea\u00e7a de re\u00advo\u00adlu\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es e ex\u00adtin\u00e7\u00e3o do mundo da pro\u00adpri\u00ade\u00addade pri\u00advada, do Es\u00adtado, do mer\u00adcado e do ca\u00adpital?<\/p>\n

Quais as pers\u00adpec\u00adtivas (ou ce\u00adn\u00e1\u00adrios) para os de\u00adci\u00adsivos pr\u00f3\u00adximos tri\u00admes\u00adtres da eco\u00adnomia mun\u00addial?<\/p>\n

Fonte da mat\u00e9ria:
\n(https:\/\/www.correiocidadania.com.br\/2-uncategorised\/14402-a-procura-do-lucro-perdido)<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jos\u00e9 Martins – Pouco mais de tr\u00eas meses atr\u00e1s, podia ser ob\u00adser\u00advado que a eco\u00adnomia mun\u00addial co\u00adme\u00ad\u00e7ava a ser re\u00adti\u00adrada do coma in\u00addu\u00adzido im\u00adposto pelos ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas a partir do m\u00eas de abril. Qual seria a cara do pa\u00adci\u00adente de\u00adpois do pe\u00adri\u00adgoso lock\u00addown (fe\u00adcha\u00admento) da eco\u00adnomia de\u00adci\u00addido pelos seus pro\u00adpri\u00ade\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrios como forma de en\u00adfren\u00adta\u00admento da epi\u00addemia […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1709,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[5],"tags":[57],"class_list":["post-14153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","tag-capitalismo"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c0 procura do lucro perdido - Controversia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2020\/10\/30\/a-procura-do-lucro-perdido\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c0 procura do lucro perdido - Controversia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jos\u00e9 Martins – Pouco mais de tr\u00eas meses atr\u00e1s, podia ser ob\u00adser\u00advado que a eco\u00adnomia mun\u00addial co\u00adme\u00ad\u00e7ava a ser re\u00adti\u00adrada do coma in\u00addu\u00adzido im\u00adposto pelos ca\u00adpi\u00adta\u00adlistas a partir do m\u00eas de abril. 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