{"id":12639,"date":"2020-03-17T09:29:01","date_gmt":"2020-03-17T12:29:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/controversia.com.br\/?p=12639"},"modified":"2020-03-15T09:30:30","modified_gmt":"2020-03-15T12:30:30","slug":"hipoteses-de-guerra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2020\/03\/17\/hipoteses-de-guerra\/","title":{"rendered":"Hip\u00f3teses de Guerra"},"content":{"rendered":"

Paulo Metri<\/strong> – A ge\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o de hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de guerra de um pa\u00eds, como ati\u00advi\u00addade ini\u00adcial do pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00admento das suas For\u00e7as Ar\u00admadas (FA), \u00e9 tamb\u00e9m a de\u00adfi\u00adni\u00e7\u00e3o ex\u00adpl\u00ed\u00adcita por parte do pa\u00eds de quem s\u00e3o seus even\u00adtuais con\u00adten\u00addores. Apesar de n\u00e3o ser di\u00adplo\u00adm\u00e1\u00adtica a ex\u00adpli\u00adci\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o dos even\u00adtuais \u201cini\u00admigos\u201d do pa\u00eds, ela \u00e9 ne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1ria para o pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00admento em pauta.<\/p>\n

\u00c9 pre\u00adciso fazer uma cor\u00adre\u00e7\u00e3o ini\u00adcial de no\u00admen\u00adcla\u00adtura. Tra\u00addi\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnal\u00admente, fala-se em \u201cHi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de Guerra\u201d com o en\u00adten\u00addi\u00admento de que se trata de con\u00adflito pro\u00advo\u00adcado por for\u00e7as ex\u00adternas ou, mesmo, in\u00adternas, mas nunca pro\u00advo\u00adcado pelo Brasil. Assim, me\u00adlhor seria se ti\u00advessem ba\u00adti\u00adzado esta fase do pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00admento de ge\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o de \u201cHi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de De\u00adfesa\u201d. Mas, neste texto, vai-se con\u00adti\u00adnuar man\u00adtendo a tra\u00addi\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

A ne\u00adces\u00adsi\u00addade de ge\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o destas hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses \u00e9 jus\u00adti\u00adfi\u00adcada porque as re\u00adco\u00admen\u00adda\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es sobre os equi\u00adpa\u00admentos b\u00e9\u00adlicos, as t\u00e1\u00adticas e es\u00adtra\u00adt\u00e9\u00adgias mi\u00adli\u00adtares, o efe\u00adtivo de pes\u00adsoal ne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1rio das FA e os trei\u00adna\u00admentos a serem mi\u00adnis\u00adtrados s\u00e3o re\u00adsul\u00adtantes destes \u201ccon\u00adfrontos po\u00adten\u00adciais\u201d.<\/p>\n

Como con\u00adsequ\u00eancia, ali\u00adados podem tamb\u00e9m ser su\u00adpostos. Por outro lado, com o passar do tempo, podem ocorrer mu\u00addan\u00e7as nas li\u00adde\u00adran\u00e7as do pa\u00eds, assim como na con\u00adjun\u00adtura in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal e, ob\u00advi\u00ada\u00admente, a lista dos \u201cali\u00adados e ini\u00admigos\u201d pode tamb\u00e9m mudar.<\/p>\n

Com re\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s even\u00adtuais ali\u00adan\u00e7as no ce\u00adn\u00e1rio mun\u00addial, \u00e9 pri\u00admor\u00addial lem\u00adbrar dois bor\u00add\u00f5es re\u00adpe\u00adtidos de longa data e que ecoam at\u00e9 hoje. O pri\u00admeiro foi pro\u00adfe\u00adrido, ori\u00adgi\u00adnal\u00admente, por Ge\u00adorges Cle\u00admen\u00adceau e diz que \u201ca guerra \u00e9 de\u00adma\u00adsiada grave para ser con\u00adfiada s\u00f3 aos mi\u00adli\u00adtares.\u201d Como con\u00adsequ\u00eancia, o pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00admento das FA deve ter acom\u00adpa\u00adnha\u00admento cons\u00adtante por parte da so\u00adci\u00ade\u00addade.<\/p>\n

O se\u00adgundo bord\u00e3o diz que, \u201cnas re\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais, n\u00e3o existem pa\u00edses amigos e ini\u00admigos, s\u00f3 existem in\u00adte\u00adresses\u201d. Assim, la\u00e7os cul\u00adtu\u00adrais entre pa\u00edses podem ser con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adrados em an\u00e1\u00adlises, mas quais\u00adquer atra\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es ou re\u00adjei\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es a pa\u00edses n\u00e3o subs\u00adtan\u00adci\u00adadas por in\u00adte\u00adresses da so\u00adci\u00ade\u00addade n\u00e3o devem ser con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adradas.<\/p>\n

Desta forma, de\u00adpen\u00addendo das con\u00adjun\u00adturas in\u00adterna e ex\u00adterna, as hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de guerra ser\u00e3o di\u00adfe\u00adrentes e, con\u00adse\u00adquen\u00adte\u00admente, as FA delas ad\u00advindas tamb\u00e9m ser\u00e3o. Com re\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o a este ponto, uns 50 anos atr\u00e1s, ouvi que o sis\u00adtema fer\u00adro\u00advi\u00e1rio bra\u00adsi\u00adleiro pos\u00adsu\u00eda dois tipos de bi\u00adtola para barrar uma hi\u00adpo\u00adt\u00e9\u00adtica en\u00adtrada das FA ar\u00adgen\u00adtinas por trem no in\u00adte\u00adrior do nosso ter\u00adri\u00adt\u00f3rio, prin\u00adci\u00adpal\u00admente em S\u00e3o Paulo, onde es\u00adtava nossa maior con\u00adcen\u00adtra\u00e7\u00e3o in\u00addus\u00adtrial. Nesta \u00e9poca, eu ainda n\u00e3o tinha ou\u00advido falar das hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de guerra, mas foi ela que de\u00adter\u00adminou as duas bi\u00adtolas.<\/p>\n

Mais ou menos, nessa mesma \u00e9poca, fa\u00adlava-se que a bar\u00adragem de Itaipu es\u00adtava sendo cons\u00adtru\u00edda tamb\u00e9m como uma arma, uma vez que, se ela fosse di\u00adna\u00admi\u00adtada, pro\u00advo\u00adcaria inun\u00adda\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es no ca\u00adminho at\u00e9 Bu\u00adenos Aires. Isto s\u00f3 podia ser piada, porque, se fosse ver\u00addade, seria uma arma ca\u00adr\u00eds\u00adsima e pouco des\u00adtru\u00adtiva. Mas, o im\u00adpor\u00adtante a ser ob\u00adser\u00advado \u00e9 que os ar\u00adgen\u00adtinos con\u00adti\u00adnu\u00adavam sendo, se\u00adgundo os mi\u00adli\u00adtares de ent\u00e3o, os nossos ini\u00admigos mais fer\u00adre\u00adnhos. N\u00e3o sei desde quando foi ino\u00adcu\u00adlado, la\u00admen\u00adta\u00advel\u00admente, na po\u00adpu\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o e nos nossos mi\u00adli\u00adtares, o germe da des\u00adcon\u00adfi\u00adan\u00e7a com re\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o aos ar\u00adgen\u00adtinos, que se\u00adriam nossos ini\u00admigos.<\/p>\n

Eles foram, da mesma forma que os bra\u00adsi\u00adleiros, ex\u00adplo\u00adrados por na\u00e7\u00e3o eu\u00adro\u00adpeia, com o eu\u00adfe\u00admismo de es\u00adtarem nos co\u00adlo\u00adni\u00adzando. Fa\u00adzendo jus\u00adti\u00e7a, Sarney e Al\u00adfons\u00edn ini\u00adci\u00adaram um pro\u00adcesso de apa\u00adzi\u00adgua\u00admento dos \u00e2nimos e de apro\u00adxi\u00adma\u00e7\u00e3o das duas na\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es, com\u00adba\u00adtendo a des\u00adcon\u00adfi\u00adan\u00e7a rei\u00adnante.<\/p>\n

Assim, che\u00adgamos \u00e0 fase do \u201ccom\u00adbate ao co\u00admu\u00adnismo\u201d, que pode ser con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adrada como uma hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adtese de guerra. Para tal, cito o trecho a se\u00adguir de um ar\u00adtigo de Jos\u00e9 Lu\u00eds Fiori, in\u00adti\u00adtu\u00adlado \u201cHenry Kis\u00adsinger e a Am\u00e9\u00adrica La\u00adtina\u201d:<\/p>\n

\u201cNeste sen\u00adtido, pode-se dizer que Henry Kis\u00adsinger se\u00adguiu ri\u00adgo\u00adro\u00adsa\u00admente as re\u00adco\u00admen\u00adda\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es de Ni\u00adcholas Spykman com re\u00adla\u00e7\u00e3o ao con\u00adtrole desta re\u00adgi\u00e3o ge\u00ado\u00adpo\u00adl\u00ed\u00adtica (que en\u00adglo\u00adbava Ar\u00adgen\u00adtina, Brasil, Chile, Uru\u00adguai e Pa\u00adra\u00adguai). Sua \u00fanica con\u00adtri\u00adbui\u00e7\u00e3o pes\u00adsoal foi a subs\u00adti\u00adtui\u00e7\u00e3o da \u2018guerra ex\u00adterna\u2019, pro\u00adposta por Spykman, pela \u2018guerra in\u00adterna\u2019 das For\u00e7as Ar\u00admadas lo\u00adcais contra se\u00adtores de suas pr\u00f3\u00adprias po\u00adpu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es na\u00adci\u00ado\u00adnais. Mas, mesmo neste ponto Kis\u00adsinger n\u00e3o foi ori\u00adginal: re\u00adcorreu ao m\u00e9\u00adtodo que havia sido uti\u00adli\u00adzado pelos in\u00adgleses na \u00cdndia du\u00adrante 200 anos. E em todos os lu\u00adgares em que a Gr\u00e3-Bre\u00adtanha do\u00adminou Es\u00adtados fracos, uti\u00adli\u00adzando elites di\u00advi\u00addidas e su\u00adbal\u00adternas, para con\u00adtrolar as suas pr\u00f3\u00adprias po\u00adpu\u00adla\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es lo\u00adcais.\u201d<\/p>\n

Este pa\u00adr\u00e1\u00adgrafo me traz grande tris\u00adteza, por saber que muitos dos in\u00adte\u00adgrantes dos dois lados deste \u201ccom\u00adbate ao co\u00admu\u00adnismo\u201d, mesmo sendo mo\u00advidos por ide\u00ada\u00adlismos, fa\u00adziam o que uma na\u00e7\u00e3o es\u00adtran\u00adgeira queria. Quantos bra\u00adsi\u00adleiros po\u00adde\u00adriam ter suas vidas pou\u00adpadas se os dois lados ti\u00advessem com\u00adpre\u00aden\u00addido que seu ver\u00adda\u00addeiro ini\u00admigo era outro, era ex\u00adterno.<\/p>\n

De\u00adpois da di\u00adta\u00addura, ou\u00adtros go\u00advernos uti\u00adli\u00adzaram suas cri\u00ada\u00adti\u00advi\u00addades, tendo ge\u00adrado as hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de guerra mos\u00adtradas a se\u00adguir. N\u00e3o cito todas e nem ca\u00adrac\u00adte\u00adrizo a que go\u00advernos elas per\u00adten\u00adceram, pois n\u00e3o se trata de uma dis\u00adputa.<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. In\u00advas\u00e3o da Amaz\u00f4nia por in\u00adte\u00adgrantes das FARCS, de\u00adpois de serem \u201cem\u00adpur\u00adrados\u201d pelo Exer\u00adcito Co\u00adlom\u00adbiano para trans\u00adporem a fron\u00adteira do Brasil. Tra\u00adtava-se de hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adtese plau\u00ads\u00edvel \u00e0 \u00e9poca.<\/li>\n
  2. \n

    O MST se trans\u00adfor\u00admaria em um mo\u00advi\u00admento guer\u00adri\u00adlheiro, que pro\u00admo\u00adveria a luta ar\u00admada no campo. Bas\u00adtante im\u00adpro\u00adv\u00e1vel e, se a luta no campo vi\u00adesse a ocorrer, os ele\u00admentos pro\u00advo\u00adca\u00addores se\u00adriam os ja\u00adgun\u00e7os dos gri\u00adleiros.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    Falsos mis\u00adsi\u00ado\u00adn\u00e1\u00adrios na Amaz\u00f4nia se\u00adriam, na ver\u00addade, t\u00e9c\u00adnicos de em\u00adpresas es\u00adtran\u00adgeiras far\u00adma\u00adc\u00eau\u00adticas e de cos\u00adm\u00e9\u00adticos ou da \u00e1rea mi\u00adneral, que\u00adrendo se apo\u00adderar das ri\u00adquezas da re\u00adgi\u00e3o. Po\u00adde\u00adriam ser tamb\u00e9m agentes de pa\u00edses de\u00adsen\u00advol\u00advidos e de or\u00adga\u00adni\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es ditas hu\u00adma\u00adni\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrias e am\u00adbi\u00aden\u00adtais, bus\u00adcando in\u00adflu\u00aden\u00adciar os \u00edn\u00addios para a cri\u00ada\u00e7\u00e3o de uma na\u00e7\u00e3o in\u00add\u00ed\u00adgena.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    Mul\u00ad\u00e7u\u00admanos da re\u00adgi\u00e3o da Tr\u00ed\u00adplice Fron\u00adteira se\u00adriam res\u00adpon\u00ads\u00e1\u00adveis por aten\u00adtados a or\u00adga\u00adni\u00adza\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es ju\u00addaicas exis\u00adtentes no pa\u00eds. Esta hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adtese \u00e9 t\u00e3o ab\u00adsurda, con\u00adsi\u00adde\u00adrando a nossa re\u00ada\u00adli\u00addade, que n\u00e3o me\u00adrece co\u00admen\u00adt\u00e1\u00adrios.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  5. \n

    Com a des\u00adco\u00adberta do Pr\u00e9-Sal, esta ri\u00adqueza \u00e9 co\u00adbi\u00ad\u00e7ada por na\u00ad\u00e7\u00f5es po\u00adde\u00adrosas para que suas em\u00adpresas con\u00adsigam usu\u00adfruir da des\u00adco\u00adberta. Podem con\u00adse\u00adguir atingir este ob\u00adje\u00adtivo atrav\u00e9s da for\u00e7a, o que ir\u00e1 re\u00adquerer FA bra\u00adsi\u00adleiras pre\u00adpa\u00adradas para esta \u201chi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adtese de guerra\u201d. Ou atrav\u00e9s da co\u00adop\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o de altos fun\u00adci\u00ado\u00adn\u00e1\u00adrios do Es\u00adtado, com au\u00adxilio da m\u00eddia, que di\u00advulgam o roubo com apa\u00adr\u00eancia de tran\u00adsa\u00e7\u00e3o legal e de in\u00adte\u00adresse da so\u00adci\u00ade\u00addade. A se\u00adgunda al\u00adter\u00adna\u00adtiva \u00e9 a que est\u00e1 ocor\u00adrendo hoje, sor\u00adra\u00adtei\u00adra\u00admente. Para a pri\u00admeira al\u00adter\u00adna\u00adtiva, o sub\u00adma\u00adrino a pro\u00adpuls\u00e3o nu\u00adclear seria um equi\u00adpa\u00admento fun\u00adda\u00admental. Do jeito que o Es\u00adtado bra\u00adsi\u00adleiro re\u00adsolveu ex\u00adplorar as re\u00adservas do Pr\u00e9-Sal, o sub\u00adma\u00adrino, hoje, ir\u00e1 ga\u00adrantir a tran\u00adqui\u00adli\u00addade do roubo.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  6. \n

    Re\u00adcen\u00adte\u00admente, foi lan\u00ad\u00e7ada a hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adtese de a Fran\u00e7a ser a grande amea\u00e7a \u00e0 nossa Amaz\u00f4nia. De t\u00e3o es\u00adta\u00adpa\u00adf\u00fardia, esta hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adtese n\u00e3o pre\u00adcisa de con\u00adtes\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o. Se fosse dito que a co\u00admu\u00adni\u00addade in\u00adter\u00adna\u00adci\u00adonal, atrav\u00e9s da ONU, ame\u00ada\u00ad\u00e7aria o Brasil com blo\u00adqueio econ\u00f4\u00admico, se n\u00e3o fossem con\u00adtidas as quei\u00admadas e as mo\u00adtos\u00adserras na Amaz\u00f4nia, seria uma con\u00adjec\u00adtura ve\u00adros\u00ads\u00edmil.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  7. \n

    O aten\u00adtado ao Rock in Rio por grupo do su\u00addeste asi\u00e1\u00adtico, a guerra com a Ve\u00adne\u00adzuela e ou\u00adtras hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses re\u00adcentes n\u00e3o pre\u00adcisam ser co\u00admen\u00adtadas, mas s\u00e3o con\u00adsequ\u00eancia do triste mo\u00admento his\u00adt\u00f3\u00adrico em que vi\u00advemos.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    De uma an\u00e1\u00adlise r\u00e1\u00adpida destas hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de guerra, pode-se dizer que in\u00adfe\u00adliz\u00admente suas es\u00adco\u00adlhas mos\u00adtram o alto grau de do\u00admi\u00adna\u00e7\u00e3o exis\u00adtente nas mentes dos pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00addores das nossas FA. Apesar de correr o risco de n\u00e3o me en\u00adten\u00adderem, creio que falta a estes pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00addores, bra\u00adsi\u00adli\u00addade.<\/p>\n

    Um alerta deve ser feito. O n\u00e3o en\u00advol\u00advi\u00admento de ou\u00adtros se\u00adtores da nossa so\u00adci\u00ade\u00addade, que amam ver\u00adda\u00addei\u00adra\u00admente o nosso povo, \u00e9 uma das causas da ge\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o de hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de guerra fracas. Cle\u00admen\u00adceau tem raz\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

    https:\/\/www.correiocidadania.com.br\/2-uncategorised\/14083-hipoteses-de-guerra<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Paulo Metri – A ge\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o de hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de guerra de um pa\u00eds, como ati\u00advi\u00addade ini\u00adcial do pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00admento das suas For\u00e7as Ar\u00admadas (FA), \u00e9 tamb\u00e9m a de\u00adfi\u00adni\u00e7\u00e3o ex\u00adpl\u00ed\u00adcita por parte do pa\u00eds de quem s\u00e3o seus even\u00adtuais con\u00adten\u00addores. Apesar de n\u00e3o ser di\u00adplo\u00adm\u00e1\u00adtica a ex\u00adpli\u00adci\u00adta\u00e7\u00e3o dos even\u00adtuais \u201cini\u00admigos\u201d do pa\u00eds, ela \u00e9 ne\u00adces\u00ads\u00e1ria para o pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00admento […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7574,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[2],"tags":[71],"class_list":["post-12639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politica","tag-geopolitica"],"yoast_head":"\nHip\u00f3teses de Guerra - Controversia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/controversia.com.br\/pt\/2020\/03\/17\/hipoteses-de-guerra\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hip\u00f3teses de Guerra - Controversia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Paulo Metri – A ge\u00adra\u00e7\u00e3o de hi\u00adp\u00f3\u00adteses de guerra de um pa\u00eds, como ati\u00advi\u00addade ini\u00adcial do pla\u00adne\u00adja\u00admento das suas For\u00e7as Ar\u00admadas (FA), \u00e9 tamb\u00e9m a de\u00adfi\u00adni\u00e7\u00e3o ex\u00adpl\u00ed\u00adcita por parte do pa\u00eds de quem s\u00e3o seus even\u00adtuais con\u00adten\u00addores. 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